The development of power lithium battery industry encounters 'Waterloo'?

The once thriving power lithium battery market faced the dual pressure of subsidy policy adjustments and rising raw material prices in 2017. In the first three quarters of 2017, the profits of several major domestic power lithium battery companies all experienced declines or even losses. However, in this context, some companies are still expanding production capacity non-stop. 'Lithium battery is a national strategy, in line with the green development concept emphasized by the country, and the energy industry structure is upgraded. Therefore, we see a huge room for the lithium battery market.' Qin Xingcai, president of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd., told reporters. Profit encountering 'Waterloo' new energy vehicles to replace traditional vehicles has become a general trend. In China, the world's largest automotive market, this will undoubtedly bring huge market space for power lithium battery companies. The reporter learned that as of November 2017, China's top 20 power lithium battery companies had a combined production capacity of 102.2Gwh. Among them, CATL, BYD, and Waterma are among the top three. However, the promising power lithium battery market encountered 'Waterloo' in 2017. According to the reporter's statistics, as of the third quarter of 2017, BYD's net profit fell by 23.82%, Guoxuan Hi-Tech's net profit fell by 13.27%, Fluoropoly's net profit fell by 45.06%, and Chengfei Integrated's net profit fell by 99.32%. In the first seven months of 2017, Tianjin Lishen lost 165 million yuan in net profit. A person from Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s Office of the Secretary of the Board of Directors told reporters: “Due to the adjustment of the subsidy policy, the price of lithium iron phosphate fell by about 25% in 2017, which directly led to a decline in the company’s net profit.” Dofluoride mentioned in the 2017 mid-year report. , The decline in the company's net profit was affected by the adjustment of national industrial policies. Qin Xingcai said that due to policy influences, the production capacity of battery plants in the first half of 2017 was generally insufficient, and it only became normal in the second half of the year. However, production will be reduced at the end of the year. After all, the subsidies and technical indicators for 2018 are still unclear, and companies are afraid to stock up. goods. The reporter learned that the power lithium battery subsidy will further decline in 2018. From a long-term perspective, the gradual cancellation of subsidies will be an inevitable trend. Subsidy policy adjustments, and the 'Regulations for the Automotive Power Lithium Battery Industry (2017)' (Consultation Draft) (hereinafter referred to as the 'Regulations') issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology set clear requirements for product performance. The adjustment also directly led to a reshuffle in the field of power lithium batteries. In this regard, the above-mentioned Guoxuan Hi-Tech Secretary Office said: 'At present, we have not discussed the battery price in 2018 with the vehicle market. If the subsidy further declines, it is expected that the profit of the company will be affected.' Faced with the subsidy policy According to the adjustment, Li Yao, Chairman of Watermar, said: “We will achieve profitability without relying on subsidies in 2020.” The reporter combed through the expansion of production capacity and grabbed the market and found that in 2017, almost the top ten power lithium battery manufacturers All are expanding. The above-mentioned Guoxuan Hi-Tech Secretary Office told reporters: 'In 2016, our production capacity was 6GWh, and we currently have a capacity of 7.5GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate accounts for 5.5GWh. By mid-2018, we will continue to have a capacity of 1.2 billion Ah. 'The reporter learned that on December 23, 2017, Guoxuan High-Tech used all the 3.56 billion yuan raised from the fund to expand the production of lithium batteries. Fang Jianhua, chairman of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, once publicly stated that Guoxuan Hi-Tech will achieve its production capacity target of 23GWh by 2020. In addition to the capacity scale requirements, the ban on ternary lithium electrolysis is also one of the reasons for the concentrated expansion of the power lithium battery industry. At present, in the power lithium battery market, the pattern of ternary lithium batteries for passenger cars and lithium iron phosphate batteries for passenger cars has basically taken shape. BYD's 10GWh production capacity formed in 2016 is all lithium iron phosphate. The reporter learned that BYD will also expand the production capacity of 10Gwh ternary lithium batteries in Qinghai in 2018. In addition, Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s secretary of the board of directors mentioned: “In 2018, the proportion of ternary lithium batteries will reach 75%. We will develop the passenger car market more. In 2018, there will be more energy density. Large ternary lithium battery products are put on the market.” In the army of concentrated expansion, many companies originally engaged in other industries have also invested in the production of power lithium batteries. Among them, Yicheng Xinneng, as a company with a large market share in the field of cutting blade materials, has also joined the power lithium battery market. In December 2017, Yicheng New Energy released the 'Feasibility Study Report on Henan Pingmei Guoneng Lithium Power Co., Ltd.'s annual production of 1 billion Wh high-safety and high-specific energy lithium-ion battery project' (hereinafter referred to as the 'Report'). The 'Report' shows that the project is divided into two phases of construction, with a planned total investment of 5 billion yuan. After completion, it will form a lithium battery production capacity with an annual output of 10 billion watt-hours. Although subsidies are gradually decreasing, with the introduction of the 'double points' policy, this will stimulate vehicle companies to increase investment in new energy vehicles, thereby expanding the market demand for power lithium batteries. Therefore, many capitals are still optimistic about the development of power lithium batteries. On November 10, 2017, the China Securities Regulatory Commission published a prospectus for the initial public offering of Ningde Times’ Growth Enterprise Market. CATL plans to raise 13.12 billion yuan in this IPO, which will be used to expand production capacity and develop next-generation batteries. Looking through the list of shareholders of CATL, it is not difficult to find, including many well-known domestic investment institutions such as Shenzhen Venture Capital, Lenovo, and Ping Resettlement. Regarding the concentrated expansion of production capacity, Qin Xingcai said, “In 2016, more than 200 battery factories popped up across the country. The battery factories were opened from Hainan Island to Jixi, Heilongjiang. This will inevitably lead to overcapacity.” Qin Xingcai said, “From the national level. According to the technology roadmap of the Ministry of Science and Technology, the state is constantly improving the technical requirements of products, while the subsidies of the state are also gradually decreasing. In the past, our country has seen “a swarm of projects” in other industries. This phenomenon has caused a lot of repetitive investments.'