Pure electric sales may fall by 50%, lithium iron phosphate batteries are favored again

In 2020, if there are no subsidies, China's rapidly developing new energy vehicles will plummet by more than 40%. Many car companies have reinvested in the embrace of lithium iron phosphate to reduce costs and cope with the era of no subsidies.

A few days ago, SAIC Chairman Chen Hong pointed out that when subsidies are cancelled by 2020, the cost reduction of new energy vehicles is not expected to fully offset the impact of subsidies. The purchase subsidy will be cancelled in 2020. If there are no other policies to follow up, the purchase cost of new energy vehicles will rise sharply. China's new energy vehicle market may experience a “cliff-edge” decline of about 40%, of which pure electric vehicles may fall by 50%.

Battery cost is the main factor that causes the price of new energy vehicles to be higher than that of traditional vehicles of the same level. Compared with traditional vehicles of the same level, the cost of new energy vehicles is still about 30,000-40,000 yuan higher than traditional vehicles, and the cost of plug-in hybrid vehicles is about 20,000-30,000 yuan. In the subsidy era, only high energy density can get high subsidies. In order to obtain subsidies, car companies have turned to ternary lithium batteries and abandoned lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Nowadays, the market trend has reversed, and lithium iron phosphate batteries have become favored again.

The 317th batch of 'Announcement on Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products' recently announced, and the 'Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles' (the second batch of 2019), All revealed an important signal: Lithium iron phosphate batteries have come back on a large scale. According to incomplete statistics, in the 317th batch of 'Announcement on Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and ProductsEight of the pure electric passenger cars are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Among these 8 models, JAC has declared 6 models, which are equipped with lithium iron phosphate supporting Guoxuan Hi-Tech and JAC Huating Power; Chery Automobile has declared 1 model ; SAIC-GM-Wuling declared one model.

SAIC-GM-Wuling is the leader of China's mini-cars and is currently working on the electric passenger car market. Data from the Passenger Association shows that in 2018, SAIC-GM-Wuling new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 26,000, and its sales reached 8312 in January 2019, ranking second in the market segment.

The introduction of cost-effective electric passenger vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate and other high-priced electric passenger vehicles is one of the magic weapons for SAIC-GM-Wuling new energy passenger vehicles to seize the market. A research report shows that the current energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery systems can reach 140Wh/Kg, and the cost is 10%-15% cheaper than ternary batteries. Low-end models can save 3000-6000 yuan by replacing lithium iron batteries. This is essential to increase the attractiveness of A0 and A00 electric vehicles. A number of car company executives said, “Consumers of electric vehicles with a price of less than 100,000 yuan are extremely price-sensitive.”

The performance improvement is the renewal of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Another reason for being favored. Industry insiders pointed out that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate and multi-element composite lithium batteries is increasing, reaching 140-175Wh/kg, even higher than some ternary materials such as NCM333.

When buying a new energy vehicle, do you care more about the price/performance ratio, or what battery is it equipped?