New energy subsidies are about to decline, who can win the ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries

2019 is a year full of challenges and pressures for the new energy automobile industry. Under the obstacles of multiple factors such as the overall decline of the automobile environment, the decline of new energy subsidy policies and the pressure of cash flow, will the new energy automobile industry be reborn in 2019?

According to the latest production and sales data of China’s traditional automobile industry released by the China Automobile Association, in 2018, the production and sales of automobiles completed 27.809 million and 28.81 million, respectively, compared with the previous year. The decline was 4.2% and 2.8% respectively over the same period, which was the first year-on-year decline in 28 years. However, in this context, new energy vehicles are still achieving rapid growth. In 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.27 million and 1.256 million, an increase of 59.9% and 61.7% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

Subsidies decline, and the choice of power batteries is differentiated

In addition to the overall demand for new energy vehicles in China’s automotive industry In the declining environment, there is still another serious problem. The decline of new energy subsidies in 2019 is likely to exceed the industry's expectations. Judging from the previously circulated 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy program, this year's subsidy has generally fallen by more than 50%.

For the new energy automobile industry, the battery part is the core of the three-electric technology. It will take at least one year for the battery to complete technical iterations and achieve mass production. For most of the current OEMs, getting subsidies is the first priority, which requires finding and cooperating with qualified battery factories.

If you take the new energy passenger car in the online version of the subsidy as an example, you can see that the current mileage and energy density requirements classification standards have not changed, but directly in the same On the basis of the standard, the subsidy amount is directly reduced.

According to the first batch of new energy vehicle promotion catalogues in 2019, there are a total of 15 models with battery system energy density of 160Wh/Kg and above. Battery suppliers include BYD and CITIC Guoan, GAC Group, JAC Huating, CATL, Xingheng Power, Polyfluoride, Tianjin Gateway, Shanghai Delangneng, Ningbo Weirui. Among them, a pure electric car supplied by Ningbo Wei Rui to Shanxi New Energy has an energy density of 182.44Wh/Kg, which is the highest energy density among currently recommended models.

It can be seen that there are already many battery factories capable of producing and supporting high-energy-density battery systems. What needs to be pointed out is that these high-energy-density vehicles are equipped with ternary batteries.

For the current new energy automobile industry, will the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries decline sharply in 2019 due to the decline in subsidies?

On February 19, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China announced on its official website the 317th batch of 'Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products Announcement' new products. Judging from the types of batteries in this batch of announcements, there are 61 models (60.4%) supporting lithium iron phosphate batteries. From the perspective of the types of batteries supporting each model, passenger cars are still dominated by ternary batteries; passenger cars Lithium iron phosphate batteries are still the mainstay; special vehicles are mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries, supplemented by ternary batteries. It can be seen that in the current new energy automobile industry, lithium iron phosphate still has a pivotal position in the market due to its excellent safety performance and obvious cost advantages.

Judging from the latest installed capacity in January, the total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries in my country in January 2019 was about 4.98GWh, an increase of 281% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was about 1.42GWh, a year-on-year increase of 177%.

At the same time, CATL plans to build a lithium carbonate plant in Qinghai, and Guoxuan High-Tech’s “hands-in” JAC and BOSCH also reflect the leading manufacturers’ commitment to lithium iron phosphate batteries. Optimistic.

According to industry insiders, there are two main directions for OEMs to plan for the whole year of 2019. The first is to continue the high-nickel ternary route unchanged, with the goal of obtaining the highest subsidy; the second is to consider the cost control of enterprises after the subsidy declines, and plan ahead of the development route based on lithium iron phosphate batteries. Representatives of OEMs currently considering vigorously developing lithium iron phosphate batteries include BAIC New Energy and JAC. For the battery factory, considering the layout of the future battery-carrying route of the main engine factory, the leading battery factory has begun to purchase lithium iron phosphate materials in large quantities. At the same time, in order to be able to compete with foreign battery factories on the same platform after the subsidy has completely declined, and to further reduce the cost of battery systems, most battery factories are still in the process of developing high-nickel ternary. SMM predicts that the demand for ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2019 will not show the polarization that was previously rumored.

2019 is a year full of challenges and pressures for the new energy vehicle industry. Under the obstacles of the overall decline of the automobile environment, the decline of new energy subsidy policies, and the pressure of cash flow, can the new energy automobile industry rely on technological breakthroughs, further reduction of costs, and in-depth industrial chain cooperation in 2019 To achieve Nirvana rebirth? Let us wait and see together.