The expansion of automobile production brings high lithium supply. Overcapacity of battery production is at stake?

According to the statistical decomposition of the my country Automobile Manufacturers Association, in May 2018, automobile production and sales declined slightly from the previous month and maintained an increase year-on-year. From January to May, automobile production and sales both increased, and the growth rate was slightly higher than that from January to April. In May, 2,344,400 vehicles were processed, a decrease of 2.26% month-on-month and an increase of 12.84% year-on-year; sales of 2,287,700 vehicles were a decrease of 1.37% month-on-month and an increase of 9.61% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 96,000 and 102,000, respectively, up 85.6% and 125.6% year-on-year. With the gradual expansion of the production of new energy vehicles, the demand for new energy vehicles has also begun to increase substantially. SMM recently published the article 'Prohibition of Fuel Vehicles Continue to Move Forward Electric Vehicles Exclusive 'Green Channels'Overcoming the difficulties of new technologies, and the successful development of various high-endurance batteries, but sales are still on the rise. With the tightening of traffic control in major cities, it is becoming more and more difficult for fuel vehicles to buy, license or drive. In front of the 'green channel' enjoyed by new energy vehicles, a large amount of increase in production and sales has increased. On top of policy-guided electric vehicles. Not only are local policies favoring new energy vehicles, the entire automotive industry chain has also begun to move steadily towards electric vehicles. According to the latest news, Guangdong Electromechanical Equipment Tendering Center Co., Ltd. announced the 2018 bidding results of pure electric buses for many bus operating companies in Guangzhou. This year, a total of 3,043 pure electric buses were purchased, with a total order amount of 3.8 billion yuan. Among them, BYD won 2,984 units as the first candidate, and the order amount is as high as 3.7 billion yuan. Followed by the 95 orders received by Yutong Bus, the order amount is about 131.1 million yuan. In addition, the public bidding results showed that several companies from Hunan CRRC Times and Shanghai Vientiane also participated in the bidding. In the case of a surge in the production of new energy vehicles, the production of lithium as an important raw material is also increasing significantly. According to the MiningNews.net website, although the demand for lithium is expected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 16% by 2025, Citibank analysts believe that the faster increase in lithium production may lead to oversupply in the lithium market. Recently, some lithium mining projects have been or will be put into production, such as Tawana Resources' bald Hill lithium mine, Pilbara Minerals and Altura Mining's Pilkan The Pilgangoora lithium mine project and the Wodgina lithium mine of Mineral Resources. In this regard, Citibank believes that if mining companies do not consciously control production, by 2025, these projects and the increase in the output of existing mines will make the global lithium supply increase at an average annual rate of 24%, which is clearly higher than 16% in demand growth. speed. Citibank predicts that global lithium production will increase from the current 200,000 tons/year to 400,000 tons/year in 2020. In 2017, the supply of lithium exceeded demand by 5%. This year this figure will increase to 11%, next year to 27%, and 38% in 2022, reaching its peak. Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen by 20%.It is estimated that the average annual price of 99% lithium carbonate is US$17,389/ton. It will fall to US$14,000/ton in 2019, US$12,000/ton in 2020, and US$12,000/ton in 2025. 9,000 USD/ton. On the one hand, there is a continuous supply. Previously, Chinese companies deployed a large number of lithium mines for output. At the same time, due to the market capacity, foreign mining companies have also expanded their production. On the one hand, there is a sharp increase in demand, not just for power lithium batteries. In the field of energy storage, the demand for lithium-ion batteries has also begun to increase substantially. On June 18, a large-scale lithium-ion battery energy storage project jointly invested and constructed by Fujian Provincial Investment Group and CATL completed the signing, and the project officially landed in Jinjiang City, Fujian. The project will invest in the construction of a large-scale lithium-ion battery energy storage project in Jinjiang, with a planned total investment of 2.4 billion yuan, which is planned to be implemented in three phases. The first phase of the project plans to build a 100 MW-hour lithium-ion battery energy storage power station, the second phase will expand 500 MW-hour lithium-ion battery energy storage equipment, and the third phase will expand 1,000 MW-hour lithium-ion battery energy storage equipment. At the same time, mobile energy storage equipment and mobile charging facilities will be built. In the case of a surge in supply and strong demand at the same time, there may be oversupply or undersupply. According to statistics from Roskill Information Services Co., Ltd., although there will be an oversupply of lithium mining in 2018 and next year, considering the expansion of consumption, the supply of lithium refined products is still relatively tight. But Guybourassa, the chief executive of the Canadian company NemaskaLithium, holds a very different view. He said that in the next four to five years, the lithium supply market will be very tight, and reports of oversupply have been seriously exaggerated. The company's chief financial officer Carlos Vicens said that the mass consumption of electric vehicles will form a scale between 2019 and 2021, stimulating the demand for battery materials. Emerging lithium-ion battery companies may not start large-scale general processing until 2021. The market has different opinions on this issue, but it is generally believed that the lithium supply may turn from the original shortage to the surplus. Will the prediction of the oversupply of lithium come true? Please let us wait and see, I believe time will give us too many clues.