The development prospects of the lithium battery industry in 2019

The scale of my country's lithium battery industry continues to expand, the development of the industry has given rise to linkages between upstream and downstream, and the industrial chain has gradually matured. Traditional batteries such as lead-acid batteries have become increasingly difficult to meet market demand, and lithium-ion batteries with more obvious advantages have begun to reach the masses. Consumers have higher requirements for power sources, and the development of the lithium battery industry is also strongly supported by governments of various countries. Analysis and forecast of the development prospects of the lithium battery industry in 2019: ⒈Compared with the expansion of the lithium battery market space, lithium batteries have high energy density, high working voltage, light weight, small size, small self-discharge, no memory effect, and long cycle life. , Fast charging and other advantages. At the same time, because it does not contain heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, pollution, and toxic materials, it is widely used in consumer electronic products such as smart phones, notebooks, and tablets, as well as new energy vehicles and energy storage fields. my country has also issued a series of relevant policy documents to strongly support the healthy and rapid development of my country's lithium battery industry. It is proposed that the next 5-10 years will vigorously promote the research and development and industrialization of new lithium-ion power batteries, and achieve large-scale applications by 2020. Driven by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, China's new energy vehicle power lithium battery market has developed rapidly, with output rising from 1.2GWh in 2012 to 44.5GWh in 2017, and is expected to be around 70GWh in 2018. 2. Power batteries will drive the development of the lithium battery industry. In 2018, China's automotive power lithium battery output is expected to reach 70GWh, an increase of 57.3% year-on-year, and its contribution to the lithium battery industry will further increase. In the future, with the steady adjustment of new energy vehicle support policies, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate will further stabilize, and power batteries will drive the continuous and rapid growth of my country's lithium battery industry. It is estimated that by 2022, China's automobile power lithium battery production will reach 215GWh, an increase of 3.8 times compared with 2017. 3. The energy storage lithium battery industry will enter the growth period of energy storage lithium batteries. In the next 5 years, China's energy storage lithium battery industry will enter the growth period, with great market potential. In the emerging energy Internet, due to the massive access of renewable energy and distributed energy in large power grids, combined with the popular application of microgrids and electric vehicles, energy storage technology will be a vital part of coordinating these applications. , The energy storage link will become the key node of the entire energy Internet; the rise of the energy Internet will significantly drive the demand for energy storage. The rapid advancement of lithium battery production technology has reduced the cost of lithium battery products, which will enhance the competitiveness of energy storage lithium battery products compared with other energy storage technologies. The market penetration rate of lithium batteries in the field of energy storage is gradually increasing, which will further promote the application market The scale grows accordingly. It is estimated that by 2019, the output value of China's lithium battery energy storage will increase to 13.7 billion yuan. The large-scale development of energy storage will promote the extension and integration of the lithium battery industry chain, promote the connection of the upstream, middle and downstream of the power lithium battery industry with capital, synchronize with the market, and achieve win-win cooperation. 4. Cascade utilization + dismantling and recycling of lithium batteries further increase the proportion of industrial energy storage batteries. Lithium batteries have high specific energy and energy density, low self-discharge rate, no memory effect and no pollution to the environment, and their performance is better than other energy storage battery types. From a demand perspective, the energy storage supply at the echelon utilization end brought by the decommissioning and recycling of power lithium batteries can be completely digested by the market. It is predicted that my country’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 79.5GW in 2020. Considering that renewable energy power generation equipped with energy storage systems will account for 5%-20% of the newly installed photovoltaic new energy power generation equipment, the capacity-to-power ratio will be 2-4 times, which can be calculated In 2020, the demand for new renewable energy power generation equipment with energy storage systems can reach 23.85GW. The power grid's demand for economy in peak shaving and valley filling, the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic installations, and the acceleration of the layout of electric vehicle energy storage charging stations have all contributed to the rising demand for tiered utilization. Lithium battery industry market scale forecast: The key application areas of lithium-ion batteries in the future will be concentrated in power tools, light electric vehicles, new energy vehicles and energy storage systems, etc. The industrial scale in these fields will maintain exponential growth in the next few years The trend will stimulate the demand for lithium-ion batteries. It is expected that the market capacity of the lithium battery industry will maintain a steady growth in the next few years, and the sales revenue of my country's lithium battery industry will reach 212.9 billion yuan by 2019. Eight major trends in the development of the lithium battery industry in 2019: Trend 1: The scale of the industry is growing steadily, and China’s advantages are expected to expand; Trend 2: Power batteries will lead the growth, and the market will account for more than 60%; Trend 3: Subsidies will decline rapidly, and new energy vehicles will increase Rapid decline; Trend 4: Accelerated application of new technologies, disruptive products can be expected; Trend 5: Lithium-ion battery performance is limited, new battery technology will take time to commercialize; Trend 6: Power battery policy changes, and the industrial structure is facing major adjustments; Trend 7: The advantages of key enterprises are consolidated, and the industry concentration is further improved; Trend 8: The standard conditions are formally implemented, and the role remains to be tested by the market. The above is the editor's analysis and forecast of the development prospects of the lithium battery industry in 2019. Lithium batteries can be said to be in short supply. The entire industry is in a hot state, and the valuation of many listed companies in the capital market is also in a state of overestimation. The lithium battery industry will continue to be in an accelerating stage in the future development. Because in the current major markets, the demand for lithium batteries is still very large.