Discussion on the technology path of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, market segmentation trends are clear

The global lithium-ion battery industry is expanding rapidly, and lithium cobalt oxide is the main force of cathode materials in the field of small lithium batteries. In 2012, lithium-ion batteries accounted for 41% of global lithium terminal demand, of which the cathode material is the core key material, accounting for 30-40% of the cost of lithium-ion batteries. It is estimated that by 2013 the global lithium-ion battery industry will reach 27.81 billion U.S. dollars. In 2015, the industrialized use of new energy vehicles will drive the global lithium-ion battery industry to 52.32 billion U.S. dollars. In 2012, the global sales of lithium ion cathode materials accounted for 47%, 22%, and 19% of lithium cobalt oxide, lithium nickel cobalt manganate, and lithium manganate, respectively. In the field of small batteries, lithium cobalt oxide materials will gradually be replaced by ternary materials and lithium manganate materials. The development direction of power lithium batteries is different in China, Japan, South Korea and the United States. Energy storage batteries are mainly lithium iron phosphate. The global output of lithium cobalt oxide materials was 39,000 tons in 2011 and 43,000 tons in 2012, a growth rate of 10.26%, which was far lower than the growth rate of 82.22% for ternary materials and 141.43% for lithium manganate materials; my country's lithium cobalt oxide materials The output was 15,000 tons in 2011 and 20,800 tons in 2012, a growth rate of 39.67%, which was lower than the growth rate of 76.36% for ternary materials and 106.00% for lithium manganate materials. We predict that by 2015 the proportion of ternary materials in cathode materials will rise to 35%, the proportion of lithium manganate will rise to 30%, and the proportion of lithium cobalt oxide will drop to 25%. In the field of power lithium battery cathode material industry, power lithium battery companies in China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States adopt different material systems. Chinese companies mainly use lithium iron phosphate, while Japanese and Korean companies mainly use lithium manganese oxide and ternary. In the field of energy storage batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are the most promising cathode materials for energy storage lithium ion batteries for large-scale commercial use in the future due to their good safety and low cost. The price of lithium cobalt oxide has been on a long-term downward trend, and the gross profit margin of domestic cathode material manufacturers is low, and the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. Domestic cathode materials are still dominated by lithium cobalt oxide, and the sales growth rates of ternary materials, lithium manganese oxide and lithium iron phosphate are all lower than the global level. In 2011 and 2012, the domestic cathode material output increased by 24% and 39% respectively, while the output value increased by only 9% and 13%. Constrained by the pressure of electric vehicle processing costs, the price of lithium-ion batteries has shown a downward trend in the long run. Due to the control of battery processing costs by lithium-ion battery processors, the price of lithium-ion battery cathode materials (importantly lithium cobalt oxide) has also shown a downward trend. . At present, the gross profit margin of domestic cathode material processing companies is relatively low, which puts pressure on the upstream lithium carbonate price. High-barrier lithium producers will benefit from the expansion of the lithium-ion battery industry. Ganfeng Lithium, a leading company in the deep production of lithium products, can supply raw materials for the processing of various positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte materials. We expect that regardless of the future trend of the cathode material technology, Ganfeng Lithium will benefit from the lithium-ion battery industry. Global expansion of industrial scale. Non-ferrous monthly tracking and investment proposals: July operating rate and import data show that the economy has stabilized, and base metal prices may continue to rise in late August. Although the company's operating rate dropped in July, in the future, the company's low raw material inventory will lead to the company's future economic stabilization expectations and product price rise expectations. The company's shipment rhythm will accelerate, and the operating rate will stabilize and rise; At the same time, the rebound in the ratio spurred a rebound in copper imports from a low level in July. Copper stocks in the bonded area remained at 500,000 tons. Most imports have not yet been declared. The year-on-year increase in imports shows that demand has rebounded. In addition, the US easing expectations exit has already been contained in commodity prices and has rebounded significantly. We believe that under the common use of multiple factors, it will open up the room for base metal prices to rise in a short period of time. In the case that risk appetite is expected to continue to rise in the future, We judge that commodity prices may continue to rise by 20%-30% in a short period of time. Investment proposal: In the next month, the overall configuration of non-ferrous metals will be increased as standard, and the supply of shrinking rare earth plates will be recommended. Lead and zinc industries will become the first choice for base metals. Based on the expectation of the price increase of base metals, we propose to increase the configuration of the non-ferrous sector in the next month from the low configuration to the standard configuration; as for the product split, due to the environmental protection of lead and zinc, the medium and long-term supply contraction is expected, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange The base number of the lead contract has been adjusted down, which is conducive to the trading of the lead contract and enhances its financial attributes. Therefore, we will take the more active lead and zinc as the preferred target. We propose to focus on individual stocks including Chihong Zinc Germanium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Xingye Mining , Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, etc. We reiterate our optimistic rating on the rare earth sector. The eight ministries’ joint rectification measures for rare earths are in line with our previous expectations. The rectifications are directed at private rare earth mines, and the scope and intensity of the crackdown exceeds the previous. The key recommendations are Minmetals Rare Earths, Baotou Rare Earths, Xiamen Tungsten Industry (the performance of related companies has room for upward adjustment), and high-performance NdFeB leading Zhongke Sanhuan, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials. The price of products in the lithium industry is differentiated due to different barriers. We are optimistic about the severely underestimated high-end lithium production leader Ganfeng Lithium.