Discuss the price and market trend of the lithium iron battery separator industry

The rapid development of iron-lithium batteries and related industries has attracted more and more companies to join the competition, and lithium battery separators are no exception. Fierce competition has caused the price of lithium battery diaphragm products to continue to decline, and the competition of low-end diaphragm products has become increasingly fierce, and the price of diaphragms has continued to fall. Iron-lithium battery separators can be divided into dry-process separators and wet-process separators according to the manufacturing process, and the pore-forming mechanism of the two is different. The dry-process diaphragm is to stretch the film at low temperature to form micro-defects (divided into dry single-stretch and dry double-stretch), and then pull the defects apart at high temperature to form micropores. Wet diaphragm is a method of thermally induced phase separation, through stretching and extraction processes to produce microporous film. Analysis of diaphragm cost ratio Diaphragm is an important part of lithium battery. In recent years, as the price of diaphragm has fallen rapidly after the successful localization of the diaphragm, the proportion of the total cost of lithium battery materials has also decreased, generally around 7-15%. Generally speaking, due to the high unit cost of positive and negative materials in ternary batteries, the cost of the separator accounts for less than 10%, and the unit cost of positive and negative materials in lithium iron phosphate batteries is relatively low, and the cost of the separator accounts for about 15%. Among lithium battery materials, diaphragm technology barriers and gross profit margins are relatively high, and it is also the last material to achieve localization. Price trend analysis of lithium iron battery separator industry The domestic iron-lithium battery separator industry has a low capacity utilization rate, and its applications are mainly concentrated in low-end areas. High-end applications such as power lithium batteries mainly rely on imports. The price of dry-process separators has dropped by about 70% compared with 3 years ago. , The gross profit margin has dropped to about 25%, and the wet diaphragm technology is not yet mature. At the beginning of January 2018, the mainstream price of 16μm wet process diaphragm was between 3.3 yuan and 4.4 yuan per square meter, and in mid-to-late April it further fell to 3 yuan-3.6 yuan per square meter, and the lower limit was further dropped to 3.5 yuan per square meter in early May. Square meters. If you take the year as the unit, this trend becomes more and more obvious. In the same period, the unit price of base film semi-finished products was 3.76 yuan/square meter, 3.85 yuan/square meter and 3.04 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 19.15%; the unit prices of finished products were 4.13 yuan/square meter, 4.3 yuan/square meter and 4.12 yuan/square meter . At present, the price of diaphragm manufactured by dry process is already very low, at about 5 yuan/square meter, and the price will continue to fall in the future. The profit margin is already very low; the price of wet process diaphragm is 10-12 yuan/square meter, wet There are almost no domestic companies that have large-scale production of diaphragms produced by the French process. At present, the gross profit rate of this business can reach 50%. In terms of price, with the continuous release of production capacity and continuous improvement of technology, the price of diaphragms has been declining in recent years. As of the first quarter of 2018, the average prices of wet-process diaphragms, dry-process single-pull diaphragms, and dry-process double-pull diaphragms were 2.9 yuan/square meter, 1.9 yuan/square meter and 1.5 yuan/square meter, respectively. It can be seen from the trend of diaphragm production capacity and output that wet-process diaphragms are the main direction of the future iron-lithium battery diaphragm industry, and the market share will continue to increase. The market development trend of iron-lithium battery separator industry. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of domestic separator manufacturers in the wet production process, the output and performance of wet process separators are getting closer and closer to the level of foreign companies, and domestic companies have rapidly expanded their production of wet process separators. , The pattern of the lithium battery diaphragm market has also changed. Although the dry-process diaphragm technology is mature and the price is low, wet-coated diaphragms have obvious advantages in diaphragm thickness and electrolyte wettability. Therefore, wet + coating is the mainstream trend. In the future, dry-process diaphragms will be compared with wet-process diaphragms. Maintain a market share of 10% and 90%, respectively. High-end products will be the future development direction of the lithium battery separator market. As the demand for safety and load density of lithium batteries continues to increase, the demand for high-end separator products is also increasing. At present, the profitability of my country's high-end diaphragm market is still guaranteed, especially for wet-coated diaphragms with higher barriers. The gross profit margin of Xingyuan Materials and Cangzhou Pearl Products, which have the production capacity of mid-to-high-end products, exceeds 50%, which is much higher than the domestic average, and has entered the supply chain system of first-line power battery manufacturers at home and abroad. Therefore, high-end products will be the future development direction of the lithium battery separator market. According to the calculation of 1GWh power battery corresponding to 20 million square meters of dry-process diaphragm or 20 million square meters of wet-process diaphragm, it is estimated that the global demand for lithium battery diaphragms will be 1.468 billion square meters in 2018, and it is expected to exceed 3.3 billion square meters in 2020. Assuming that the unit price of diaphragm drops by an average of 10%-15% annually, the global diaphragm market will still be close to 10 billion in 2020. Although the red sea of u200bu200bprice wars has begun, the determination of lithium iron battery separator companies to expand production has not stopped. Amid the sound of expansion in the lithium battery separator industry, overcapacity is looming. At present, the current status of my country's lithium battery separator market is rapidly growing due to the explosive growth of new energy vehicles. my country's iron-lithium battery separator production capacity is rapidly expanding, and industry competition will continue to intensify in the future. The price of lithium battery separators will further decrease and the gross profit margin will also decrease. But at the same time, the replacement rate of imported high-end lithium battery separators will further increase, and the industry's huge profits will return to rationality. At the same time, the average price of iron-lithium battery separators will fall, industry competition will intensify, small companies will be eliminated, and the strong will win the market. The above is the analysis of the price and development trend of the lithium iron battery separator industry. It is expected that the lithium battery separator industry will continue to maintain a compound growth rate of about 30% by 2020. Wet diaphragm + coating reinforcement best matches the safety and performance requirements of power batteries.