Will lithium-ion batteries become the next photovoltaic industry?

As the new energy subsidy policy is about to come out, and the Tesla effect from the other side of the ocean once detonated the new energy vehicle sector in the A-share market, the development of new energy vehicles has once again entered people’s vision, and as the core component of electric drive power, Lithium-ion batteries account for 50%-70% of the total cost of power. With the development of the new energy market, lithium-ion batteries are one of the most profitable industries, and concerns about the blind expansion of lithium-ion battery production have also followed. As early as during the two sessions, Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, revealed that the country's subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will continue this year, subsidies will be increased, and subsidy standards will be increased. Miao Wei stated that in order to comply with the previous energy and environmental situation, given that the previous new energy policy subsidies were not effective, the current subsidy policy is still necessary to continue. In the past, our country mainly focused on buses, but recently private purchases of new energy vehicles have started. , The next step will be to increase efforts to start the development of private purchase of new energy vehicles. According to Lu Xiangzhen, Director of the Major Project Coordination Office of the Shenzhen Municipal Development and Reform Commission, Shenzhen’s existing 15,000 taxis will all be replaced with pure electric taxis, and starting from the second half of 2013, Shenzhen will successively introduce electric taxis. Incentive policies and supporting policies for charging facilities. In addition, many markets such as Hangzhou and Anhui have goals and supporting policies to increase the promotion of new energy vehicles. Relevant media have also reported that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be extended for 3 years, the original 25 demonstration cities will be further expanded; the subsidy for car purchase will no longer be restricted by the demonstration city area, and the amount of pure electric vehicles will be as high as 60,000 yuan per vehicle. The subsidy remains unchanged, and the original subsidy standard of 3,000 yuan/kWh for domestic plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles is expected to be raised. Various speculations about policies have ignited another round of enthusiasm for investment in lithium-ion batteries. However, as the darling of the energy industry, there are still many issues worthy of attention in the development process. The development of lithium battery seems to be somewhat similar to the photovoltaic industry that is on the cusp of the storm. Will it be the same as the photovoltaic industry? Under the policy, it will expand rapidly in a short period of time, resulting in overproduction, decline in profitability, and industry supply exceeding market demand, etc. Etc., this series of issues worries people in the industry. According to some report data, from the end of 2012 to June 2013, due to policy expectations, investment in lithium-ion batteries continued to increase. The current planned investment projects will have an output of more than 5 billion ampere hours by 2015. The report released by FrostSullivan shows that by 2015, my country’s total demand for passenger car pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles and electric commercial vehicles is only about 120,000, which consumes about 900 million ampere-hours of lithium, and the output is huge. Exceeding demand. As early as 2010, Roland Berger stated in a survey report on global lithium-ion batteries that as of 2015, global automotive lithium-ion battery production will be at least twice the actual demand. However, in addition to the question of whether production and demand are balanced, my country's automotive lithium-ion batteries still have insufficient effective output. my country's automotive lithium-ion batteries are currently too dispersed, not large-scale, and still in the preliminary experimental stage, and have not reached the point of commercialization. And other issues.