Subsidies decline by 20%, my country's electric vehicle market transformation accelerates

The new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be officially implemented in 2021. On the last day of 2020, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly announced the 'Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles.' The 'Notice' clarified that the new energy vehicle subsidy standard in 2021 will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2020 and will be implemented from January 1, 2021. This means that for new energy vehicles purchased from January to January this year, the subsidy will be implemented in accordance with the 2021 version of the policy, and there will be no transition period. Specifically, the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 will be reduced by 20% compared to 2020, the technical requirements for the energy density of power lithium batteries will remain the same as in 2020, and the energy consumption standards will also remain the same. GGII believes that since the early layout of car companies is to completely withdraw subsidies from the target plan of 2021, most of the details of the subsidy policy are the same as the details of the new energy vehicle subsidy announced in April 2020 that will be extended to 2022. Therefore, 20 The subsidy decline of% is in line with psychological expectations. Most companies can digest the old models on their own, and consumers will not have too much payment deviation. From the perspective of market reaction, the current hot-selling models Tesla Model3, Weilai EC6, ES6, ES8 (paid on January 10th), Xiaopeng G3 and P7, etc. have all kept their prices unchanged. At the same time, the implementation of the subsidy policy and the elimination of the superimposed subsidy transition period will help promote the normal increase in the annual production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021. Due to the 'panic buying tide' triggered by the subsidy transition period, the production and sales before and after the transition period The complex situation of large fluctuations will not occur. In addition, new energy passenger cars with a price of more than 300,000 yuan do not enjoy subsidies, but the separation of car and electricity is still unrestricted. From the announcement of favorable policies for power replacement in 2020, many OEMs such as Weilai, BAIC, Dongfeng, Jianghuai, Fengsheng, and Weimar have applied for power-swapping passenger vehicles. Therefore, in the high-end models of 2021, the car-electric separation mode will occupy an important place. In 2021, the test cycle will be changed from the current NEDC to WLTC. However, since the WLTC test standard has not been officially announced, the battery life will still be determined according to the principle of 'old car old standard, new car new standard'. It is worth mentioning that in the new subsidy policy, the energy density technical requirements for power lithium batteries in 2021 remain unchanged in 2019 and 2020. Compared with the previous years' subsidy policy linked to battery energy density, this year's policy standards remain stable. There is an industry view that the subsidy policy in the past few years has been pursuing the improvement of battery energy density, and some companies have neglected to pay attention to safety performance in the process of blindly pursuing high energy density, leading to frequent safety accidents. In order for the new energy automobile industry to develop more safely and steadily, certain compromises must be made in the battery energy density within a short period of time. However, some people in the industry believe that this year's subsidy technical indicators are biased towards conservativeness, which will to some extent discourage battery companies' enthusiasm for progress and promotion. On the premise of ensuring safety, it is necessary to promote the development of industry technology by raising the subsidy threshold. The 'Notice' also pointed out that in response to the frequent safety problems of new energy vehicles in recent years, it is proposed that the production company's safety management system is not in place and the major accident is administratively punished by the competent department. In the event of an accident, or if it is ordered by the competent authority to be recalled, measures such as suspension or cancellation of the recommended model catalog, suspension or cancellation of financial subsidies, etc., depending on the extent. It is worth noting that, compared with the current radical new energy subsidy policy in Europe, the domestic new energy subsidy policy is rapidly transitioning to marketization. Taking Germany as an example, the price of pure electric vehicles is less than 40,000 euros (about 317,000 yuan) to subsidize 6,000 euros (about 48,000 yuan), and it is planned to continue until 2025. The domestic subsidies for pure electric vehicles are between 13,000 and 18,000. With the huge subsidy bonus stimulus coupled with my country's complete new energy vehicle supply chain, more new energy vehicles manufactured in my country will be exported to Europe in the next five years, bringing huge development opportunities for the entire industrial chain. According to the 'NoticeThis means that the advancement of the public sector can promote the systematic development of the popularization of new energy vehicles, and the electrification of rental network and urban public transportation will continue to obtain a good environment for development. The industry predicts that domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 1.7 million in 2021.