Analysis of the supply and demand pattern of lithium copper foil in 2021

Entering 2021, the price of lithium battery copper foil will continue to rise. On March 3, market data showed that the average price of 6m copper foil and 8m copper foil rose to 117,000 yuan/ton and 103,000 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 99,000 yuan/ton and 83,000 yuan/ton in early January. , Rose 18% and 24% respectively. Industry insiders pointed out that, driven by the rising market demand for downstream new energy vehicles and 5G base stations, domestic mainstream copper foil manufacturers are currently in full production, and the company has full orders, and high-quality output, especially products with thinning of 6m and below, is in short supply. Domestic companies including Nordisk, Chaohua Technology, Jiayuan Technology, Xinborui, Telford Technology, etc., as well as South Korean SKNexilis, Nissin and other companies have announced the expansion of copper foil production. From the demand side, new energy vehicle power lithium batteries are the segment with the largest demand for lithium-ion batteries, followed by lithium-ion batteries for 3C digital and energy storage. As a result, the data predicts that the global demand for lithium battery copper foil in 2020-2022 may reach 17.1, 223,000, and 261,000 tons, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of about 23%. From the perspective of the supply side, due to factors such as the long production cycle of key equipment and process accumulation, the output of copper foil is difficult to break in a short period of time. In 2021, the supply and demand relationship of lithium battery copper foil will be tight. According to statistics, by the end of 2020, the total global output of lithium battery copper foil will be about 400,000 tons. By the end of 2021 and 2022, the total global output of lithium battery copper foil will increase to about 493,000 and 560,000 tons/year, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of about 18%. Based on the above industry data, the following supply and demand forecasts can be made: First, from the perspective of growth rate, the demand side growth rate is greater than the supply side output growth rate, which means that the current supply and demand gap will be difficult to fill in a short period of time. Second, from the perspective of quantity, the new global lithium battery copper foil production in 2020-2022 will be 66, 9 and 67 thousand tons/year respectively. If the production utilization rate is 70%, it is estimated that the global new lithium battery will be added in 2020-2022. The oversupply of copper foil is 19.6%, 5.0% and 3.5%, respectively, and the industry supply and demand balance is gradually improving. From the perspective of product trends, compared with 8m lithium battery copper foil, 6m and 4.5m lithium battery copper foil can increase the energy density of lithium-ion batteries by 5% and 9%, respectively. Therefore, the penetration rate of 4.5m is expected to continue to increase. Chen Yubi, executive vice president of NORD shares, believes that 6m has become a mainstream product in the domestic power lithium battery copper foil market. It is estimated that the penetration rates in 2020-2022 will be 60%, 80%, and 90% respectively. In 2020, 4.5um copper foil will also enter the mass production period. As shown in the figure below, scenario assumptions of 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, and 30% are made for the domestic penetration rate of 4.5m copper foil in 2021. When the production utilization rate is 70%, it indicates the supply and demand of the global 4.5m copper foil market in 2021. The pattern will be significantly better than the copper foil market above 6m. (The market supply and demand pattern of copper foil of 4.5m and above 6m under different output utilization rates in 2021) From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the total output of lithium battery copper foil in my country and South Korea at the end of 2020 accounted for 87% of the world’s total. At present, 2021-2022 The annual increase in production will also mainly come from China and South Korea. According to estimates, in 2020-2022, the global lithium battery copper foil industry TOP4 share will stabilize at about 30%, and TOP8 will stabilize at about 48%. The leading effect is significant. The industry's judgment is that the new output of copper foil will be gradually released around 2022, and the industry may usher in a new competitive landscape.