Analysis of the price and cost of lithium batteries

Compared with lead-acid batteries, the cycle life of lithium batteries is generally more than twice that of lead-acid batteries, and the price has dropped to about twice in 2014. The cycle life prices of the two are almost the same. In terms of cost performance, lithium batteries start leading. As the price and cost of lithium batteries continue to decrease, the scale of power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles will increase dramatically in the future, and lithium batteries will usher in a larger market scale. The price and cost of lithium batteries will become a trend, and the market supply has surged. The rise of the new energy automobile industry has expanded the market's demand for lithium mineral resources, causing the price of lithium batteries to soar. However, recently, a report pointed out that the supply of lithium batteries in the future may exceed the demand for lithium in new energy vehicles, and the price of lithium batteries may fall by 45% in 2021. At present, China is the world’s largest application market for chemical energy storage. From 2016 to the end of June 2017, my country’s newly added electrochemical energy storage capacity under construction and operation reached 1.35GW, which is the cumulative installed capacity from 2000 to 2015 9.6 times the scale. However, compared to other new energy power generation installed capacity, energy storage is still a lot of thunder and rain. With the rapid decline in the cost of lithium batteries, the lithium battery energy storage market will usher in explosive growth in the next few years. According to industry insiders, the next certain blue ocean industry in the next 10 years is the energy storage market. During the manufacturing process of lithium batteries, processes such as electrode manufacturing and battery assembly will have an impact on the safety of the battery. At present, some manufacturers specializing in the production of lithium batteries in the industry have mastered sophisticated patented technology, which has greatly improved the safety of lithium batteries. Industry insiders made it clear that in two years, lithium batteries will replace more than 60% of lead-acid batteries, and at the same time, the cost of lithium batteries will drop by 40% in two years, even lower than the price of lead-acid batteries. At present, the price of lithium manganese oxide, a raw material for lithium batteries, has fallen by 10%, which is fully in line with the trend of significant cost reduction in two years. It does not even take two years for the price advantage of lithium batteries to be fully utilized. With the prominent performance advantages, lithium batteries have gradually expanded the market scale, and the increase in demand has directly led to the expansion of production capacity and the reduction of manufacturing costs, which in turn stimulated further growth in market demand. In this way, the lithium battery industry has embarked on a virtuous cycle of development. How did the price of lithium batteries fall? Subsidy subsidies, downstream car manufacturers lower prices, and upstream material prices increased. Under the pressure of the three mountains, the life of power lithium battery companies has become more difficult. First look at the subsidy decline. The subsidy policy in 2017, in terms of national subsidies, has fallen by 20% compared to 2016. Taking the prescribed standards as an example, the total subsidy has fallen by about 40%, because from the perspective of land subsidies in ordinary areas, According to the regulations, the land subsidy has even dropped by 60% compared to 2016 (for reference only, because the subsidy policy is different in each place). Followed by lower prices by downstream car manufacturers. Data from the Starting Point Research (SPIR) show that at the beginning of 2017, the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries was about 2.60 yuan/Wh; the price of ternary batteries was about 2.50 yuan/Wh; by the end of 2017, the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries It has dropped to about 1.55 yuan/Wh, and the ternary battery has dropped to about 1.45 yuan/Wh. The two major power lithium batteries have reduced prices by 40% in 2017. The purchase tax exemption will end at the end of this year, and the current subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% in 2018. Among them, the subsidy for passenger cars and special vehicles is reduced by about 20%, and the subsidy for passenger cars is reduced by 30%-50%. The proportion of local supporting subsidies has dropped from 1:1 to 1:0.5. New energy car companies that rely heavily on government subsidies to nurture were severely hit for a while, requiring power lithium battery companies to sharply cut prices. In 2019, the price of lithium batteries will drop by 10%-15%. In other words, by the end of 2019, we will be able to see that the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries will drop below 1.40 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary batteries will drop to around 1.30 yuan/Wh. This is one step closer to the 2020 lithium battery price target of 1.00 yuan/Wh. Forecast of the future development of lithium batteries: In the future, with the further improvement of lithium battery production technology and battery performance, it will occupy the main market of energy storage batteries, power batteries and other fields. The application of lithium batteries in various fields is becoming more and more extensive, especially in the fields of electric vehicles, new energy, military and other fields. Countries and major enterprises have increased their research and development support. In the future, power battery manufacturing will develop in the direction of 'three highs and three modernizationsmy country's lithium battery pack enterprises must also invest more resources to accelerate the realization of intelligent manufacturing of lithium batteries through technological innovation, automated production and standardized management. From the perspective of the development trend of power batteries, lithium batteries are the main force in the future, and various car companies regard the development of lithium batteries as the main direction of new energy vehicles. It is expected that the market scale of the lithium battery industry is expected to grow rapidly in the future with the increase in policy support, technological progress and the increase of new energy power. Summary: The decline in the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries has made it more difficult for the power battery companies caught in the middle, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Under this circumstance, if you want to stay on the high ground, the most important thing is to master the core technology of lithium battery, do a good job and strengthen the product quality, in order to reduce costs and improve the profitability of the company, otherwise it will be eliminated. In the future, as the cost of lithium batteries further decreases, lithium-ion batteries will find wider applications in the energy storage market.