When will the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate stop?
Recently, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate hit a four-year high. The latest market price has reached 315,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200% from 105,000 to 115,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The price is even closer to the average price of 85,000 yuan/ton in the third quarter of last year. Times. GGII analysis believes that the important factor that drives the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate soaring is the misalignment of supply and demand. The downstream market demand far exceeds expectations, while the supply-side output cannot keep up, and the inventory of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached the lowest level this year. With full production and full sales, the market is in short supply. In fact, the production process of lithium hexafluorophosphate is difficult and environmental protection barriers are high. The construction and production cycle of major companies is generally 1.5 years. The supply elasticity is small, and the centralized maintenance of some of the company's production lines has led to limited output. Demand changes have triggered an imbalance between supply and demand, which has pushed prices to enter quickly. Up cycle. And part of the company's production and sales are centralized overhaul. In April, companies including Duo Fluoride, Skyline, Jiujiu Jiu and other companies have substantially increased their prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate. For example, Skyline announced that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate products will be increased by 15%-20% on the basis of existing prices. At the end of May, CATL locked the output of Ningde Kaixin lithium hexafluorophosphate, a subsidiary of Tinci Materials, through a long order. From the effective date of the contract to June 30, 2022, Ningde Kaixin will supply Ningde Times with an amount of electrolyte corresponding to the expected usage of 15,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate (both parties can negotiate to increase or decrease by no more than 20%). Calculated on the basis of 0.135 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate per ton of electrolyte demand, 15,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate corresponds to about 110,000 tons of electrolyte, which can support 100±20% GWh of lithium ion battery demand, which means that the CATL will bind 100GWh of electrolyte output corresponding to 100GWh within one year . The head battery company's long order to lock the electrolyte supply and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate further confirms the improvement of the bargaining power of the lithium hexafluorophosphate link, and also reflects the strong downstream demand and the current situation that the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte products is in short supply. In addition, since 2021, the supply of electrolyte additive VC has been extremely tight, and the price has risen sharply, resulting in increased purchasing pressure for downstream electrolyte manufacturers. Some electrolyte companies bluntly said that they are currently planning to expand the VC production line, and at the same time cooperate with customers in research and development to reduce the VC ratio. The industry’s judgment is that the upstream supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC additives is tight, and prices are frequently increased. The shortage of electrolyte supply will be a system project. This tight supply situation is likely to continue until next year. For larger power lithium battery companies, Ensuring the stable supply of electrolyte in the next few years is a more urgent issue.