The industrialization of solid-state batteries is approaching 2026 or ushering in an industrial maturity period

Recently, there have been news from major companies about solid-state batteries. The 150kwh battery pack released by Weilai on Weilai Day has achieved an energy density of 360wh/kg and a cruising range of over 1,000 kilometers. Ningde era BYD and others have also been exposed. Patent for solid-state batteries has triggered social discussions. And can solid-state batteries successfully replace the current lithium-ion batteries for large-scale industrialization? We believe that we need to consider from three perspectives: energy density, safety performance, and battery cost. The first is energy density. Energy density is one of the most important indicators to measure the pros and cons of a power battery, because it largely determines the distance that a new energy vehicle can travel at a time, and also determines the power battery equipped Whether the model can meet the daily needs of consumers. In fact, there are two common practices in the industry to increase the cruising range of new energy vehicles: increasing the volume of power batteries and increasing the energy density of batteries. The former is to directly improve the overall quality of the battery, increase the charge capacity and increase the cruising range by making the volume larger. However, this method has great limitations. The second is to increase the energy density of the battery itself, which is also one of the most important goals in the power battery industry in recent years. In my country’s plan for the power battery industry, the overall energy density of power batteries in 2025 is about 350-400WH, while the current theoretical energy density upper limit of traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries is 350WH/kg. The current liquid lithium-ion battery technology is trapped Due to the limitations of its own system, it has gradually become difficult to keep up with the ever-increasing energy density requirements, and the solid-state battery itself has a stronger electrochemical window compatibility, and its electrochemical stability window can reach more than 5V, which is higher than the 4.2 of traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries. V, which means that it can match higher performance cathode materials, and the use of metal lithium anodes is also possible. Significantly increase the energy density of its theory. In the existing positive and negative electrode material system, 300Wh/kg is a relatively high energy density, but the use of lithium metal negative electrode can reach more than 500Wh/kg. The increase in energy density means that the volume of new energy vehicles and the space utilization of the vehicles themselves can also be effectively improved. 2. Security. According to the survey results of the Shenzhen Consumer Council, the safety of new energy vehicles overwhelming mileage anxiety and other issues have become the main reason why consumers refuse to buy. In recent years, with the substantial increase in the number of new energy vehicles in my country, safety accidents have occurred frequently. For a long time, due to its flammability, liquid electrolytes are prone to leak or volatilize when encountering impacts, causing battery fires and explosions. Security incident. The solid-state battery uses a non-flammable all-solid electrolyte to replace the liquid electrolyte. Even after being physically impacted, it still does not smoke, fire, or explode. At the same time, the lithium dendritic phenomenon has been sufficiently suppressed and is safe. Has been greatly improved. The third aspect is cost. Since new energy vehicles are still a consumer product in nature, if they want to completely replace the status of fuel vehicles, in addition to the overall performance such as cruising range, safety performance must be flat or surpassed, if the cost cannot be achieved better It is still difficult to carry out industrialization. Because solid-state batteries use all-solid electrolytes, electrolytes, electrolyte salts, separators, and binders, all raw materials are not used, which greatly simplifies the battery construction steps. The intermediate production processes, such as electrolyte injection, additional cooling systems, etc., It can also be omitted. Data shows that when the capacity of solid-state batteries at the cell level reaches 20GWH, the cost of solid-state batteries is very close to that of liquid lithium-ion batteries, and the cost is 1.1 times that of liquid batteries. At the pack level, when the production capacity reaches 20GWH, the cost of solid-state batteries drops to 98% of that of liquids. However, when the production capacity is gradually increased in the future, the cost of solid-state batteries is expected to be lower than that of ordinary liquid lithium-ion batteries. From the perspective of Ru0026D progress, the overall development process of solid-state batteries can be divided into three periods. The first period is 2018-2021. This period is mainly the planning and Ru0026D period of solid-state battery products. During this period, the industry’s The products of major battery manufacturers have gradually approached the upper limit of the theoretical energy density of traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries. The industry as a whole is facing a transitional period. During this period of time, traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries such as ternary iron-lithium batteries still occupy the market. leading. The next 2022-2025 is the application period. At this stage, models and products equipped with solid or semi-solid batteries will gradually appear on the market. However, due to cost issues, it is expected that the possibility of being installed in high-end models will be higher by then. , And the energy density will also exceed the theoretical limit of traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries at this stage, and it is expected that the energy density will reach 300-500WH/KG. In the third stage, the solid-state battery market will usher in a mature period from 2026 to 2040. This stage is expected to achieve technological breakthroughs, with energy density exceeding 500WH/kg, and large-scale commercial applications and mass production are possible.