Discuss the development of various links in the domestic power lithium battery industry chain

For the past few years, foreign-funded battery companies have been relatively cautious in capacity expansion. Recently, LG announced an expansion plan of more than 100GWh, and Samsung, which has experienced several rounds of panel and semiconductor cycles, has started investing 26 billion yuan in power batteries. The world’s largest investment in 2015 deserves great attention. According to estimates of the expansion plans of five leading battery companies including LG, CATL, BYD, Panasonic, and Samsung, the total new capacity of the five companies is expected to be 319GWh. Subsidies have entered a new stage, and the proportion of high-end products has increased. On June 12, 2018, the new subsidy policy was officially implemented, and the product structure of all links was further upgraded. a) In terms of passenger cars, in recent months, the sales of A00-class models have declined significantly, and the sales of A-class models have increased significantly. b) From January to October, the average charge of pure electric passenger cars reached about 40kWh, and the charge of electric buses and special vehicles also reached 191kWh and 54kWh of bicycles respectively, and the charge of bicycles increased significantly. c) It is estimated that the demand for power batteries in 2018 will reach 58GWh, a growth rate of 60%. In 2020, the demand for power batteries will exceed 100GWh, and the compound growth rate in the past four years will reach 40%. d) The ternary battery technology route is currently the best choice. It is estimated that in 2020, it will be close to 90GWh, and the 4-year compound growth rate will reach 90%. e) Companies that can produce high-end products will benefit, and industry concentration will further increase. From January to October, the market share of the top 5 companies with power battery installed capacity was 77.8%, compared with 61.6% in 2017, and the degree of concentration further increased. f) According to the capacity plans of major material manufacturers in the past two years, there are signs of overcapacity. Industry competition will intensify in the future, but some high-end products will still be in short supply, and industries with high concentration will be able to ensure a stable profit level. The author believes that the pace of subsidy adjustment will not stop, and existing policies will still be adjusted in 2019. The rate of subsidy reduction in 2019 is likely to be smaller than in 2018, but the development trend of new energy vehicles remains unchanged. Under the New Deal, there is a clear trend for the strong to stay strong, and technical strength determines future earnings. a) Power battery: CATL and BYD are in an absolute leading position. After the implementation of the New Deal, the total power battery market share has exceeded 60%. The author believes that the scale effect will bring more Ru0026D investment, and it is currently in rapid technological iteration. The power battery industry will enable the strong to stay strong. b) Cathode materials: Ternary has replaced LFP and has become the main development direction of power battery cathode materials. The compound growth rate will reach 90%, and the future space is huge. LFP, low-nickel 333 type and 523 type cathode materials due to slow demand growth, capacity utilization will decline, resulting in a decline in profit margins. High nickel ternary cathode materials are still in short supply due to the difficulty of preparation and limited supply. c) Anode materials: The industry concentration is relatively high. Natural graphite CR5 is about 90%, and artificial graphite CR5 is about 80%, which can ensure a stable profit margin in the industry. You can pay attention to the anode companies that have made breakthroughs in the industrialization of silicon carbon anodes. d) Diaphragm: Driven by the rapid development of ternary lithium battery, wet process is expected to become the mainstream. In recent years, the production capacity of diaphragms has expanded rapidly. After the production capacity is completely released, there will be fierce price competition. At this time, companies with low product costs will eventually gain a larger market share. The author believes that the market structure of each link of the domestic power lithium battery industry chain has been initially formed, and the threshold for new entrants has been greatly improved compared with previous years. Smaller companies in the future market will gradually be eliminated, and the final market structure will be formed.