Battery technology will become the next battlefield for electric vehicles, optimistic about Tesla leading the industry
Since last year, the world's hottest investment area is none other than electric vehicles. Goldman Sachs believes that technological progress to increase battery energy density will become a key factor in determining the range and cost of electric vehicles, and benefiting from its leading edge in related technologies, Tesla (TSLA.US) will become an innovation in the industry. LiB came out in 1991, and today the energy density of LiB has reached 300Wh/kg, which is mainly due to the innovation of the materials used. LiB is composed of four key materials: positive electrode material, negative electrode material, separator and electrolyte. In the next 5 years, Goldman Sachs expects to achieve technological breakthroughs in the field of cathode materials (silicon anode or graphene cathode). In the medium term, Goldman Sachs expects that manufacturers are increasing the energy density to 400-500Wh/kg through the development of ASSB. The purpose of the ASSB technology is to replace the liquid electrolyte with a solid electrolyte, which can improve safety, and if a lithium metal cathode is used, it can also increase the energy density. The bank estimates that in 2020, the cost of key battery materials for electric vehicles will account for 18% of the overall cost: positive electrode material 18%, negative electrode material 6%, separator 10%, electrolyte 8%, and other materials (binders, layers). Presses, conductive additives and all other materials). In addition, due to CATL and BYD expanding production capacity, Goldman Sachs believes that car battery prices will continue to fall. The bank predicts that the price of car batteries will fall to US$75/kWh in 2030 (the bank’s estimate last year was US$85/kWh); by 2040, the price will further drop to US$58/kWh ( Last year’s forecast was $63/kWh). The bank predicts that from 2020 to 2040, the compound annual growth rate of electric vehicle sales will reach 19%. In other words, the annual sales volume increased from 1.8 million vehicles to 56.3 million vehicles, a 30-fold increase.