Who will become the new darling of ternary batteries and iron-lithium batteries
The ternary battery with higher energy density is more promising than the lithium iron phosphate battery. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are optimistic about their applications in short-distance vehicles due to their better cost advantages, safety performance and lifespan advantages. SMM predicts that the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2019 will be affected by the sluggish demand in the passenger car market and continue the trend of slight decline. The annual installed capacity will be about 20.8GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. The main application scenarios in the future will be short-distance passenger cars and buses. In the market.
'The land subsidy will not make up the car. The direction is to supplement the electricity.' Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview. Concerned about the details of the new energy subsidy policy, he said that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will soon be released, and there will be major adjustments to land subsidies. Local subsidies for new energy vehicles will no longer subsidize car companies, but instead subsidize infrastructure. At present, the charging infrastructure is still facing problems such as difficulty in construction, low operating efficiency, unreasonable layout, and wrong model. As the country begins to increase policy support and guidance for charging infrastructure, the new energy vehicle charging pile infrastructure will Usher in a key breakthrough.
Dong Yang believes that the adjustment of the subsidy policy will help the competition of electric vehicles to further return to the market. After there are no subsidies, new energy vehicles will return to the market, and those products that one-sided pursuit of cruising range will cause high costs and high prices will be reduced. Of course, it is not completely absent. Companies will also launch some long-range, high-end products, but the consumer market is more focused on driving mileage and price ratio. The mileage is shorter, for example, about 200 kilometers, but the price is lower. , This is also very possible.
In 2019, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is about to be implemented. Earlier, there were rumors that the overall new energy vehicle subsidies would decline by 40% in 2019, and there was also news that it would decline by 50%. %, but the final plan has always been confusing. Although the subsidy decline is an inevitable trend, this is an indisputable fact, but when will the subsidy decline? How much is the decline? Arouse the nerves of market practitioners and investors.
At present, in addition to traditional car manufacturers such as BYD, BAIC New Energy, and Jianghuai, the domestic new energy car companies, but also new car manufacturers such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and Weimar It has also begun to emerge. If the subsidy is withdrawn and the policy dividend support is left, it will undoubtedly be a more cruel knockout for the already fiercely competitive new energy vehicle market. In order to solve the problem of local protection and promotion of the survival of the fittest among market enterprises, the cancellation of land subsidy is put on the agenda. The cancellation of land subsidy may make some auto companies face huge financial pressure, product development cycle pressure and technical pressure, and at the same time affect the sales and profits of these companies. Will be affected. Under the temptation of high subsidies, China's new energy vehicle companies have a large number and uneven scales. After the subsidy declines, the new energy vehicle market will increase the overall concentration. Through the natural law of survival of the fittest, the surviving car companies will definitely It integrates multiple advantages such as technology, financial strength, brand power, etc., and is more suitable for future industry development.
Under the severe environment of the State Supplementary Corporation's sharp decline this year and the cancellation of the land subsidy, the choices of car companies and battery manufacturers have begun to diverge. Since China's new energy vehicle market is still an incompletely open market driven mainly by subsidies, enterprises still use subsidies as their main purpose. From this perspective, ternary batteries with higher energy density are more promising than lithium iron phosphate batteries. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are optimistic about the application in short-distance vehicles due to their better cost advantages, safety performance and lifespan advantages. SMM predicts that the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2019 will be affected by the sluggish passenger car market demand and continue the trend of slight decline. The annual installed capacity will be about 20.8GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. The main application scenarios in the future will be short-distance passenger cars and buses. In the market.
