The 'cobalt-free' battery is intended to deter price speculation

International cobalt prices have risen since August and have risen by about 20% from their lows in March. Why did the price of cobalt rise under the trend of 'cobalt-free' batteries launched by Tesla? Is there a gap in the supply and demand of cobalt, and what is the future price trend? Will the beautiful performance of relevant companies' three quarterly reports be sustainable in the future? Xu Aidong, Secretary-General of the Cobalt Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, will give you a detailed interpretation. The 'cobalt-free' power battery is intended to deter price speculation, and its long-term equilibrium price is about 10-20 US dollars per pound. Xu Aidong said that the price of cobalt once rose only because of the stimulus of purchasing and storage news. Fall back. Excluding accidental factors and judging solely from the relationship between supply and demand, the long-term equilibrium price of cobalt should be 10-20 US dollars per pound. As for whether the 'cobalt-free' power battery will have a greater impact on the cobalt price, Xu Aidong believes that the purpose of proposing the 'cobalt-free' is to make a strategic reserve of technology and act as a deterrent to price speculation from public opinion. To ensure the reasonable use of cobalt. After 2025, power batteries will become the largest application field of cobalt. Xu Aidong said that the largest application field of cobalt is batteries (3C batteries account for 44%, power batteries account for 17%-18%), in addition to superalloys (aircraft engines, gas turbines for ships). Field), cemented carbide (tools, drills), etc. She predicts that the amount of cobalt used in 3C batteries will still be the main force before 2025. After 2025, power batteries will surpass 3C batteries and become the largest application field of cobalt. As a rare metal, can cobalt meet the demand in the future? Xu Aidong believes that although most of the global cobalt resources are concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there is no shortage of cobalt supply in the long run. Because in addition to the supply of cobalt raw materials, cobalt recycling is becoming an important channel to supplement the supply of raw materials. At present, 10%-12% of the global cobalt supply comes from recycling channels. Xu Aidong believes that power battery recycling has great potential. In the future, as batteries gradually enter their life cycle, more cobalt will be supplied through recycling channels. Cobalt recycling business can contribute to profits. Many companies have already deployed data. The data shows that the third quarterly net profit of related companies in the cobalt industry has risen sharply. Will their performance continue to rise in the future? Xu Aidong said that a stable cobalt price will definitely benefit the company's future performance. In addition, the cobalt recycling business will also bring profits to the company. At present, Huayou Cobalt, GEM and other companies have already deployed their cobalt recycling business.