When will the inflection point of demand for lithium manganate batteries come?
On May 15, 2018, in accordance with the national standard management procedures, the 'Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specifications' revised by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was approved and released. It was officially implemented on April 15, 2019. The transition period is 11 months. . With the strict standards of the new national standard, irregular products produced by some small-scale electric vehicle companies will become the first batch of targets. Under the pressure of the new national standard, various related supporting facilities enterprises of electric bicycles have mixed feelings. Among them, new energy battery companies are beginning to have new opportunities.
Currently, the most common battery in electric bicycles is lead-acid battery. Due to its low price, abundant material sources, mature technology and manufacturing process, and high resource recovery rate, it has been Various electric vehicles are widely adopted and extensively researched in various countries. However, the new national standard clearly stipulates the requirements for electric bicycles equipped with batteries, which also directly affects the future application of lead-acid batteries in electric bicycles.
In the new national standard, the two regulations that have the greatest impact on the new energy battery industry are as follows:
a. Completely assembled The mass of the electric bicycle is less than or equal to 55kg;
b, the battery nominal voltage is less than or equal to 48V
Yes It can be seen that the direction of the new national standard for future electric bicycles is mainly 'lightweight' and 'safe'. In this regard, there is a high demand in the industry for lithium batteries to replace lead-acid batteries in electric bicycles in the future, and among them, there are more supporters of lithium manganese batteries and ternary batteries. SMM summarized the differences between lead-acid batteries and lithium manganese batteries and ternary batteries.
The mass of the lead-acid battery mounted on the electric bicycle is generally above 55kg, and most of them cannot meet the requirements of the new national standard. The quality of the battery pack of lithium batteries is far less than that of lead-acid batteries. At the same time, the energy density and cycle times (lifetime) of lithium batteries are better than lead-acid batteries. Therefore, the possibility of lithium batteries replacing lead-acid batteries in the future is very high. .
In the current three types of power batteries, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is lower than that of ternary batteries and lithium manganate batteries, but the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials However, it is higher than lithium manganate, and electric bicycles do not require too much cycle times, so most electric bicycle companies do not consider carrying lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Compared with the ternary battery, the lithium manganese oxide battery has good safety, and the price is much cheaper than the ternary battery. Therefore, it has become a lot of enterprises to produce electric The preferred cathode material for bicycle batteries.
The future development trend of lithium manganese oxide batteries
According to many industry insiders, SMM said that 2018 will be electric bicycles. Equipped with the inflection point of lithium batteries, the demand for lithium batteries on electric bicycles will increase year by year in the future. The current demand for lithium batteries is mainly concentrated in the use of lithium manganate batteries, ternary batteries or two types of batteries. Some companies that are optimistic about lithium manganese batteries stated that the replacement of lead-acid batteries and nickel-metal hydride batteries by lithium batteries in the electric bicycle market in the future is a general trend, and lithium manganese batteries are likely to take the lead with their multiple advantages in performance and price; not only that, manganese Lithium-acid batteries also have good expectations in other fields. After the new energy subsidy policy is completely withdrawn from the market, the cost advantage of lithium manganese-acid batteries will be greatly reflected. It may also have breakthroughs in the field of electric tools and power vehicles.
According to SMM research and analysis, in 2017, China’s total demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles was 4GWh, of which the demand for ternary batteries and lithium manganese batteries accounted for The ratios are respectively 40% and 60%. SMM predicts that due to the huge amount of electric bicycles currently in the market, after the official implementation of the new national standard, the demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles will increase year by year, and is expected to reach 20GWh in 2021. At the same time, the application proportion of lithium manganate batteries in electric bicycles will increase year by year. By 2021, the application proportion of lithium manganese batteries will reach 80%.