Tesla plans to produce 3TWh batteries by 2030, 15 times more than the forecast agency

by:CTECHi     2021-08-31
According to relevant media reports, Tesla made the most of the show on 'Battery Day' this week, and its announcement that it will produce 3TWh batteries annually by 2030 has surprised many industry analysts. But BenchmarkMineralIntelligence, an analysis agency from the United Kingdom, believes that although Tesla's goals exceed expectations, combined with existing technology and production capacity, its battery demand by 2030 may reach 10TWh. In particular, Tesla's battery factory in California will have a sharp increase in production capacity, and its battery production capacity ranks the 13th largest battery factory in the world. According to reports, the agency has conducted a survey and evaluation of 187 battery production plants and predicts that by 2030, the annual global battery output will be 2.7 TWh, while Tesla’s battery production capacity will be 200 GWh by then. Tesla's production plan is to reach an annual output of 3TWh in 2030, which is more than 15 times more than the forecast. Overall, Tesla expects its battery demand will reach 10TWh by 2030. It is reported that Tesla stated on this 'Battery Day' that they will not be limited to the production of gigawatts of batteries, and that its pilot plant in California is rapidly increasing battery production. In fact, industry analysts generally are not very optimistic about this newly created California battery factory, because although the current scale of Tesla's so-called pilot factory ranks 13th among the global electric vehicle battery factories, its production capacity is still limited. It is understood that the production capacity of the Terrasse California pilot plant in 2020 is 10GWh, which is equivalent to half of the global lithium battery production in 2010. In 2012, when the popular model ModelS series was launched, the battery factory's production capacity even exceeded one-third of the world's lithium battery production. But when Tesla first announced the creation of the Gigafactory in early 2014, the output of the California battery plant subsequently showed a downward trend. Therefore, from a production point of view, Tesla is going all out to achieve the goal of 3TWh. The output of the California battery factory, which is the highlight, has also begun to soar. This also indicates that Tesla wants to be in the next few years. Create various global super factories. It is especially worth noting that industry analysts do not agree with Tesla CEO Musk’s statements about battery production that are too “ridiculous”, such as: Nevada’s lithium raw materials are sufficient to supply electric vehicle production throughout the United States; Put the clay into the water to separate the lithium, and then put the clay back on the ground. Analysts believe that Tesla's problem is still how to supply the raw materials necessary for battery production, that is, to ensure the safety of upstream supply in the battery production supply chain. Even if the California battery factory runs at full power, it is impossible to accomplish Tesla's ambitious goal without the lithium mine necessary for lithium batteries. In fact, it is still unclear how Tesla 'solves the supply of lithium mines'. The lack of elaboration of the details in this link has caused the industry to still not understand the implementation of the entire plan. The British research institute BenchmarkMineralIntelligence emphasized that there has not been any information about Tesla's acquisition of a lithium raw material production company in Nevada, which indicates that Tesla may still be mainly limited to the original production area. On the whole, Tesla's introduction of lithium raw materials on Battery Day is still very unclear. For example, the relationship between Tesla and lithium raw material suppliers, and the relationship between other automobile manufacturers, battery manufacturers and these lithium raw material suppliers will change due to the implementation of these plans. There are various disagreements and disputes, which have not yet been resolved. At present, the analysis agency is skeptical of Tesla's so-called 'as long as the factory is built, it can produce' and Tesla's cooperation with the world's largest mining company. Analyst Weibos said that he does not believe that all of Tesla's plans can be implemented and achieved goals. Some of them can, some are not. He said, 'We need to look at Tesla's mention of these project plans in a more realistic manner.'
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