Supply and demand gap widens lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to increase prices

by:CTECHi     2021-09-12
On January 22, the domestic price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was about 115,000 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 130,000 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 25,000 yuan per ton, a jump of 23.8 yuan, compared with the highest price of 105,000 yuan/ton on January 14. %, an increase of 85.7% from the low of 70,000 yuan/ton in July last year. In addition, the Spring Festival basically does not stop work, and the newly signed lithium hexafluorophosphate price has exceeded 130 thousand-135,000 yuan/ton. The industry's judgment is that if the lithium hexafluorophosphate company performs maintenance after the Spring Festival, the price will exceed 150,000 yuan/ton half a year in advance. The main driving factor for the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate is the misalignment of supply and demand. The downstream market demand far exceeds expectations, while the supply-side output cannot keep up. Companies such as Duo Fluoride and Tianji Co., Ltd. are full of production and sales, and the market is in short supply. It is expected that demand will continue to pick up from the previous month in 2021, the gap between supply and demand will widen, and the wave of price increases is expected to accelerate, especially when Q2 new energy vehicles enter the peak season of production and sales in 2021, the price is expected to reach 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton, and continue to consolidate at a high level. From the demand side, the demand for new energy vehicles exceeds expectations, providing long-term power for the increase in demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the proportion of power lithium batteries in the total demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to increase. In 2016, the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate for power lithium batteries was 6,600 tons, accounting for 34% of the total demand. In 2021, the demand for power lithium batteries is expected to be 35,600 tons, accounting for 56% of the total demand. The high rising trend of new energy vehicles is determined to provide long-term power for the rising demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate. In addition, the penetration rate of lithium batteries in market segments such as small power, electric ships, and electric light vehicles has accelerated. In 2021, the global supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate are expected to be 59 thousand tons and 63,500 tons, respectively, up 38% and 33% year-on-year. There will be a gap of 4500 tons of supply and demand. On the supply side, the inventory consumption of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the first half of 2020 has been completed, coupled with the low operating rate on the supply side, and downstream demand rebounded in the second half of the year. In September, supply began to fall short of supply, and prices started to rise. The current industry has entered a low-speed expansion period. After 2020, only Polyfluoride and Tinci Materials have expansion plans for domestic production. At the same time, it is difficult for the original production to resume production quickly in a short period, while the new production of lithium hexafluorophosphate has a long construction period and high environmental protection barriers. The general period is 1.5 to 2 years. The elasticity of supply is small. The change in demand causes an imbalance of supply and demand, pushing prices into a rapid rise cycle. . From 2020 to 2022, it is expected to form a nominal output of 6.3/7.8/9.7 million tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. However, due to the different production time nodes, it takes a certain period for the output to ramp up, and some of the output is old production lines that need to be overhauled, and some small factories have closed down the production line at a loss. The effective output is expected to be 5.3/5.9/7.2 million tons in 2020-2022. . In the mid-term, new supply is limited, the tight balance pattern will continue, and the production utilization rate of relevant lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturers will continue to rise. On the cost side, lithium carbonate, phosphorus pentachloride, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid account for a relatively large proportion of the cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate. With the downstream demand boom, the supply of raw materials in winter is tight, and lithium carbonate and anhydrous hydrogen fluoride are short-term. Acid prices continued to rise. For example, recently, driven by the tight supply of upstream raw materials and strong demand in the downstream battery market, the price of lithium carbonate in the market exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 21.2% from 63,000 yuan/ton in mid-January. In the medium and long term, the suspension of production of some minerals in Australia and the expansion of salt lakes in South America. Due to factors such as the postponement of the epidemic, the reduction in the supply of lithium mines will bring about a continuous increase in the price of lithium carbonate, which will provide support for the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate. On the whole, the continuity of the price increase cycle of lithium hexafluorophosphate is strong, and the price is expected to reach 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton in 2021, and consolidate at a high level.
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