Structural overcapacity emerges, and the domestic power battery market accelerates reshuffle

by:CTECHi     2021-09-01
'From January to September last year, my country had 67 battery companies with installed capacity for new energy vehicles, but 11 of these companies have no installed capacity this year. In the first three quarters of this year, 32 companies had insufficient total installed capacity. 10MWh.' Liu Yanlong, secretary general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, recently pointed out that my country's power battery industry is currently facing fierce competition. As the core component of electric vehicles, with the rapid development of the industry, new technologies and new business formats emerge at an accelerated pace. The industry generally believes that the development of the power battery industry has ushered in a new turning point, and the market concentration will further increase. In the future, the only top ten companies will be left unfavorable factors such as the weak global auto market and the epidemic, which will severely damage the power battery industry. According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to September this year, my country’s total power battery installed capacity was 34.2GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%. Judging from the ranking of domestic power battery companies in terms of vehicle loading, Ningde Times ranked first with 3.12GWh installed in September, accounting for 47.4%; BYD ranked second with 1.09GWh installed, accounting for 16.5% The remaining top five companies are AVIC Lithium Battery, LG Chem and Panasonic; Guoxuan Hi-Tech ranked sixth, accounting for 3.4%; Funeng Technology ranked seventh, accounting for 1.9%. 'The market concentration of my country's power battery industry has further increased.' Liu Yanlong introduced that from January to September this year, the total installed capacity of the top ten power battery companies in the domestic market accounted for 91.71% of the overall market share, compared with only 88.01 in the same period last year. %. In addition to fierce internal competition, foreign capital is also accelerating its market layout in China. 'From January to September last year, the share of foreign companies such as LG Chem and Panasonic Battery in my country's power battery market was only 0.35%. This year, the share of foreign companies has increased to 15%.' Liu Yanlong admitted frankly that foreign companies have brand, capital and Capacity advantage. With the deepening of cooperation between foreign-funded enterprises and domestic OEMs, the above-mentioned ratio is expected to continue to rise. Xu Yi, general manager of Yinghe Technology, believes that the barriers to entry for the power battery industry will become higher and higher in the future, and the industry may only have the top ten companies. 'Once a car factory is mass-produced, it will have very high requirements for production capacity, mass production, stability, etc., and have certain requirements for the technology, capital and management of battery companies.' Structural overcapacity emerged, said Zheng Mianping, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the power battery market began. There is a coexistence of tight supply and overcapacity. Although my country's power battery production capacity has reached 270-280GWh, the overall capacity utilization rate is only 30%. There is insufficient supply of high-end high-quality capacity, insufficient orders for low-end products, and structural overcapacity. Wang Yanqing, chairman of Wuxi Pioneer Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., also confessed to reporters that at present, battery orders are increasingly concentrated in leading companies, and high-end production capacity is seriously insufficient. 'Our business is gradually concentrated in the top customers, and their expansion speed is very high. Fast, the demand for production capacity is very urgent.' In addition, materials are also a major factor restricting the development of power batteries. Zheng Mianping introduced that the supply of mineral resources required for electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is worrying. 'From 2015 to 2050, the world's annual lithium consumption will continue to increase. During this period, 5.11 million tons of lithium will be consumed; China's dependence on cobalt resources has remained above 70% for a long time. It is estimated that by 2035, the cumulative import demand will be about 1.2 million tons. It is equivalent to 15-20 times the domestic cobalt resource reserves; at present, by 2035, the cumulative nickel demand gap for new energy vehicles is more than 20 million tons.' 'It is estimated that the market size of positive and negative levels in upstream materials will be 2.5 times from 2025 to 2030. Zhou Bo, director of the Research Department of the Standardization Working Group of the Power Battery Application Branch, called for domestic materials and battery companies to deploy more upstream nickel, cobalt, lithium and other metal resources as soon as possible to ensure a stable supply of raw materials in the future. He further stated that the cost of power batteries has dropped from 2.3 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 0.8 yuan/Wh, and may eventually reach about 0.45 yuan/Wh. 'In the future, prices will continue to fall, and upstream materials must accept the mission of cost reduction. To ensure that companies remain profitable, reducing material costs is the focus of future industrial development.' The synergy of the industrial chain determines success or failure. It is worth mentioning that since this year, Ningde Times signed a cooperation agreement with Tesla, Volkswagen took a stake in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Daimler took a stake in Funeng Technology. There is a trend of alliances between auto companies and power battery companies. In this regard, Liang Rui, vice president of Xinwangda Electronics Co., Ltd., described it as 'walking with giants.' 'This is a big trend. Many international car companies have long-term parts cooperation companies, and they have been cooperating since they are identified. As the core component, the power battery has a high technical content. Car companies do not need to build batteries, and it is impossible to make them soon. The cooperation between car companies and battery companies can give play to their respective professional advantages and achieve complementary advantages. This is a good model for everyone to achieve strategic coordination and common growth.' Zhou Jiang, executive vice president of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd., believes that power battery technology The route has shown a diversified trend. In the past, only energy density and ternary routes were no longer the mainstream. Battery companies began to focus on the real needs of OEMs and consumers, and developed corresponding battery technology products. In the opinion of Liu Jincheng, chairman of Huizhou Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd., industrial chain synergy is the key to success. It is necessary to have a consistent quality system and ability for upstream material, component suppliers and battery companies to make business activities sustainable and effective. . 'There was vicious competition in the early industry. Some companies reported very low prices and aggressive technical solutions. Now they have been backlashed by the market.' Liu Jincheng further said that the power battery market is huge and the industry needs more coordinated development. Do well in their respective sub-fields to improve the efficiency of the entire industry.
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