NCM811 battery makes Ningde era 'somersault'

by:CTECHi     2021-08-26
On September 7, Ningde Times (300750.SZ), the leading stock on the Growth Enterprise Market, experienced a heavy volume drop, reaching as low as RMB 180.00 per share, and the largest drop was as high as 11.88%. As of the close, CATL fell 17.86 yuan from last Friday's closing price to 186.40 yuan per share, a decrease of 8.74%, and its current total market value was 434.2 billion yuan. It has something to do with the NCM811 battery that caused the Ningde era to fall such a big 'something'. NCM811 battery has safety problems. Recently, a source said, “The Ningde era has basically denied the 811 battery route. The increment must be used less, and the stock can only be handled flexibly, and the pressure is very high.” Then, the Ningde era refuted the rumors, “This It is a proper rumor. In a short period of time, 811 will still be the main strategy of the Ningde era. Ningde era has not given up on 811 batteries. The parallel connection of multiple lines has always been the company's core idea of u200bu200bdeveloping battery cell business.' Ningde era insiders further pointed out , 'The BMW ix3 that will be put into production uses 811 batteries.' According to the news, the BMW Group will unveil the pure electric SUV BMW ix3 in Shenyang on September 13. The new car will be equipped with a battery pack supplied by CATL with a capacity of 80 kWh. The cruising range reaches 520 kilometers. However, the market believes that the Ningde era's explanation is pale and weak, and the NCM811 battery cannot bypass safety issues. Because, in the power lithium battery, the higher the specific gravity of the highly active nickel element, the worse the thermal stability of the cathode material. Specifically, when the battery encounters impacts such as high temperature and external force, it is more likely to cause thermal runaway. When charging, gas appears to make the battery bulge. Therefore, the 811 battery is considered to be a power lithium battery whose stability and safety need to be improved. Since the beginning of this year, according to statistics, more than 20 spontaneous combustion incidents of new energy vehicles have occurred, which is the year with the largest number of spontaneous combustion accidents of new energy vehicles. For example, GAC AionS has had at least three fire accidents recently: On May 18, in the parking lot on the east side of the south gate of Guangzhou Carambola Park, a white Guangzhou Automobile New Energy AionS caught fire, and the tail ignited flames. And an Audi A6L on the right. Thereafter, on August 12 and August 23, another AionS spontaneously ignited in Shenzhen and Haikou. GAC AionS’s power lithium battery suppliers currently mass-produce Ningde Times and AVIC Lithium. According to various sources, the media confirmed that most of the AionS that caught fire was equipped with NCM811 batteries from the Ningde era. AionS power lithium battery supporting information source: vehicle factory certificate data; drawing: electric vehicle observers These incidents have caused the industry to have doubts about the safety of the NCM811 battery. “The batteries of the AionS2020 model have been replaced with (NCM) 523.” said a sales consultant of Guangzhou New Energy’s Beijing Xinpeng Guangyuan Experience Center. “(AionS) will no longer use 811 after the upgrade, but the batteries It still comes from the Ningde era.' 'Car companies have become particularly cautious about the safety of batteries.' Wang Rongjin, a partner of Shanghai Jinbang Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd., said that the safety disadvantages of the 811 battery itself have made many manufacturers who are ready to take back the test. 'The current mainstream of ternary lithium-ion batteries is NCM523.' Professor Zhu Xichan of Tongji University said that due to the safety of high nickel formulations, NCM811 batteries are too dangerous and OEMs have seldom used them. '(Ternary lithium-ion battery) is a trend to return to NCM523.' Although the market share prospects are not optimistic, although the short-term impact caused by the 811 battery is different, in the global market share, the Ningde era has fallen behind LG Chem. It has been ranked first in global power lithium battery shipments for three years. Whether it can 'continue' in the fourth year, there are big variables. In the past July, the global installed capacity of power lithium batteries was 10.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% and a month-on-month increase of 4%. This is after 4 months of negative rise, the global power lithium battery installed capacity has resumed to rise. However, in the ranking of global power lithium battery installed capacity in July, the power lithium battery installed capacity of CATL was 2.7GWh, still lagging behind LG Chem's 2.8GWh. In the ranking of global power lithium battery installed capacity from January to July, CATL lags behind LG Chem's 13.4GWh with 12.7GWh of battery installed capacity. Looking forward to the rest of the second half of the year, being hit by the NCM811, I did not want to be controlled by others and deliberately 'escape' from the OEMs of the Ningde era, and may add support for battery companies outside the Ningde era. For example, under the accelerated penetration of LG Chem and Panasonic into the Chinese market, they will use their technological advantages to erode the high-end power lithium battery market in the Ningde era. For another example, in order to ensure the safety of power lithium batteries, vehicle companies are increasingly inclined to diversify procurement. Even Panasonic is no longer the exclusive supplier of Tesla. LG Chem and Ningde era have entered; Weimar Motors has two suppliers: Tafel and Ningde era; GAC New Energy has Ningde era, Funeng and AVIC Three suppliers. In addition, both BYD’s blade batteries and Honeycomb Energy’s cobalt-free batteries manufactured based on the lamination process have entered the attention of OEMs. As the OEMs can choose a wider range of partners, it is very likely to further compress the market in the Ningde era. Share. Summary: As far as the safety issues brought by the NCM811 battery are concerned, the market believes that the ternary battery is returning to the NCM523 because the NCM523 technology is more mature. However, in the long run, with the advancement of technology, NCM811 safety and battery thermal management capabilities will continue to improve, and NCM811 batteries will still have strong competitiveness in the future. The current market is just to correct the 'pumping and facilitating' of skipping NCM622 from NCM523 and entering NCM811 directly. In other words, aggressiveness is not advisable, and new technologies must be fully verified by all parties before they can be adopted in large quantities, otherwise the consequences will be very serious.
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