Li-ion battery price trend forecast

by:CTECHi     2021-07-08

In recent years, the rapid development of new energy vehicles has greatly promoted the development of my country's lithium-ion battery industry. When purchasing a lithium battery, not only should you choose a lithium battery of the appropriate specification according to your needs, but also understand the price of the lithium battery. Of course, some applications should also consider the net weight and size specifications. Lithium-ion battery price trends are key to price increases for lithium-ion battery materials, and battery cell manufacturers are under pressure. Among the four main materials, the price of electrolyte has fallen sharply, and the price of diaphragms has gradually fallen. Although the price of the negative electrode has risen, the impact on the total cost of the battery is less than 1%. The price of the cathode material, which has the greatest impact on cost, is affected by the price fluctuations of raw materials-cobalt and lithium, and it is difficult to loosen the price. Leading battery cell companies with a certain scale rely on market advantages and in-depth cooperation with upstream battery material and raw material manufacturers to gain a certain bargaining power, but this part of the price contradiction will be concentrated on small and medium battery companies. The price of lithium batteries will drop by half in the next 5-10 years. The price of lithium iron phosphate batteries for communications has dropped by an average annual rate of more than 10%, and has dropped from 3.3 yuan/WH in 2011 to about 2 yuan/WH, compared with the current price of lead-acid batteries of 0.55-0.6 yuan/WH , The price/performance ratio has been significantly improved. It expects that the price of lithium batteries for communications is expected to drop to around RMB 1.5/WH in 2015. In addition to the cost reduction caused by the scale effect, the price drop in the upstream link of lithium-ion batteries is also expected to lower the overall cost. It is understood that the upstream materials of lithium batteries mainly include positive electrode, negative stage, electrolyte and separator. Among them, the diaphragm is the most critical inner component and core material of a lithium battery. With the continuous release of production capacity, the gross profit margin will decline rapidly. It is estimated that by 2014, the gross profit of the diaphragm should be in a reasonable position of about 25%. Among other upstream materials, the net profit margin of traditional anode materials has dropped to about 9%. Lithium battery price forecast There are currently two main types of mainstream power batteries: ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, most of the newly listed electric vehicles on the market basically use ternary lithium batteries. The reason is simple: the battery energy density of ternary lithium batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate. The latest national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles puts forward very strict requirements on battery energy density: the threshold is 105Wh/kg, and the coefficient is only 0.6; only when it reaches 120Wh/kg, the coefficient can reach 1. At present, the general energy density of lithium iron phosphate is about 120Wh/kg, while the energy density of a ternary lithium battery can be about 140Wh/kg. Taking into account the existing overcapacity and the demand for lithium iron phosphate battery terminals is far less than that of ternary lithium batteries, the editor’s forecast is that by 2020, the terminal cost of lithium iron phosphate will drop to 900 yuan, while ternary Lithium batteries will drop to 950 yuan. The technological progress and price drop of lithium batteries are one of the most important driving forces for the advancement of the new energy automobile industry. It is expected that the price of battery systems will continue to fall to around 1.3 yuan/Wh in 2018, a drop of about 10-15%. Affected by the price of raw materials, there is limited room for reducing the cost of lithium batteries due to technological progress, efficiency improvements and economies of scale. Price cuts will further squeeze the gross profit margin of battery cell companies. According to calculations, the overall gross profit margin of the battery cell industry will drop from 36% this year to about 30% next year. According to the breakdown of the cost of power battery cells, the total cost of the four main materials-positive electrode material, negative electrode material, separator, and electrolyte does not exceed 60%. Among them, the cost of the four main materials of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for about 50%, and the cost of the four main materials of ternary batteries accounted for about 60%. The highest proportion of cost is cathode materials and other costs (including structural parts, labor costs, etc., mainly non-scale costs). The anode cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounts for about 25%, and the cost of ternary battery cathode materials accounts for a particularly high proportion, close to 40%. At present, the average selling price of lithium battery packs is US$209 per kilowatt-hour (approximately RMB 1383.58), a drop of 24% from a year ago. In 2010, this figure was 1,000 US dollars (about 6,620 yuan). The decline in the price of lithium batteries directly reflects the expansion of the battery manufacturing industry. The above is the price trend of lithium-ion batteries and lithium battery price forecasts. In the next few years, the price of lithium batteries will show a downward trend year by year. Among the four major lithium-ion battery materials, the cost of separators is second only to cathode materials, about 10%-15%. In some high-end batteries, the cost of separators accounts for Even more than 20%, the main reason is: Among the four major lithium-ion battery materials, the diaphragm has the highest technical barrier and the highest gross profit margin.

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