Explore the planning and layout behind the increase of power lithium batteries by car companies, the market tug-of-war is about to start

by:CTECHi     2021-09-10
1. The cost of power lithium battery has dropped, but there is still room for reduction. The manufacturing cost of electric vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and the price is generally higher than the same model of fuel vehicles by about 30,000 to 40,000. Among them, the cost of power lithium batteries accounts for The ratio is around 40%. According to public data, the global power lithium-ion battery pack price in 2019 was US$156/kWh, and it is expected to fall to US$93/kWh by 2024 and further to US$61/kWh in 2030. From the perspective of the cost structure of the battery pack, the raw material cost of battery cells accounts for the largest proportion. The price of rare metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese has remained high. Taking electrolytic cobalt as an example, the price of electrolytic cobalt has been maintained within the price range of 250,000-300,000/ton in the past year. Therefore, we are looking for new materials and new processes. Become a new direction for cost reduction. 2. Car companies have deployed in the field of power lithium batteries, reducing costs on their own to win more markets. On September 23, Tesla announced a number of new technologies during its 'Battery Day'. The important purpose is to continuously reduce Cost, so as to ensure a price advantage in the market to increase sales. Tesla officially announced that by 2025, through cost reduction measures, the cost of Tesla battery packs is expected to fall by 56% to 56 US dollars/kWh, and the price of Tesla's pure electric vehicles is expected to fall to 25,000 US dollars. Calculated in turn, taking the Tesla ModelS equipped with a 100kWh battery pack as an example, the cost of its single-vehicle battery will be reduced from $13,000 to $5,600, and the price of the vehicle can be reduced by 10%. Under the circumstance of ensuring product quality, such a large reduction in the price of bicycles will definitely win the favor of the market and can quickly increase sales. At the same time, Tesla announced that it intends to expand the production of power lithium batteries to 10GWh in 2021 and 200GWh in 2022. If self-sufficiency can be achieved in the future, it will not only reduce costs, but also improve the adaptability of batteries and vehicles. In addition to Tesla, many mainstream car companies have been involved in the battery field, which can be roughly embodied in three forms: One is to deepen cooperation with battery manufacturers. Ningde Times has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Company, Honda Automobile, BAIC and many other OEMs. According to the data of my country's Automotive Power Lithium Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, Ningde Times will have 16.75GWh of vehicles installed from January to September 2020. , The market share accounted for up to 49%. The second is that the main engine factory has invested in the battery company to grasp the core technology with capital investment. On May 28th, Volkswagen China and Guoxuan Hi-Tech signed the 'Share Transfer Agreement' and formally became a shareholder of Guoxuan Hi-Tech. On July 2, Daimler Greater China invested 904.5 million yuan in the strategic placement of Funeng Technology's Sci-tech Innovation Board IPO and obtained approximately 3% of the shares. The third is to build a self-built battery factory, which can quickly meet the needs of vehicles for batteries. BMW will independently develop batteries and plan to double the energy density of batteries in 2030. 3. Analysis of the reasons why car companies are vying to deploy battery factories. At present, mainstream car companies such as Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, and Tesla have increased their investment in the battery field and established battery factories in many places around the world. In particular, the outbreak of this year’s epidemic has severely affected battery supply, which has further urged car companies to accelerate their deployment in the battery field. In the final analysis, it is important for OEMs to build battery factories to meet their own needs. The important reasons include the following: 1. Manufacturers, self-built battery factories, etc., ensure a long-term and stable battery supply, and even in emergencies, they can ensure the normal operation of the production line. 2. Significantly reduce the production cost of the vehicle. As mentioned above, the cost of power lithium battery accounts for about 40% of the cost of the vehicle. Self-built battery factory eliminates the need for intermediate price increases, and can also resist battery companies’ insufficient supply and materials. Risks such as price increases. 3. It can be perfectly adapted to the vehicle. The battery is designed and produced at the same time as the vehicle, allowing car companies to change the shape of the battery according to the design requirements of the vehicle during the remodeling or launch of new models, and reduce development costs. At the same time, the battery is fully adapted to the vehicle, which can reduce the occurrence of safety problems. 4. It can provide more convenience for the development and use of subsequent charging products. 5. To improve the efficiency of battery supervision, monitoring data can be used to improve subsequent services and continuously optimize related technologies. 6. Facilitate the realization of a unified battery standard, and facilitate subsequent battery recycling and echelon utilization. 4. The power lithium battery market is about to start a tug-of-war. From the current perspective, automakers’ self-built battery factories and independent research and development of battery technology have become the future trend. Automakers and battery companies will expand on the market in terms of material innovation and process innovation. Competition and cooperation. High energy density, stability and safety are the goals for the development of power lithium batteries in the future. Cobalt-free, single crystal, new electrolyte additives, silicon nanowires and other new technologies and new materials will provide new ideas for the research and development of car companies. In the long run, the idea of u200bu200bimproving quality and reducing costs will force the continuous optimization of technology. In the future, core product strength will determine the market position of power lithium battery companies.
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