Explore the planning and layout behind the increase of power batteries by car companies

by:CTECHi     2021-08-30
At present, on a global scale, the electrification of automobiles has brought a new round of expansion opportunities for the power battery industry. It has not only spawned an active layout of the entire power battery industry chain, but also triggered mainstream vehicle companies to build their own battery factories. This behavior also From the side, it reflects the future layout considerations of auto companies in the field of electrification. 1. The cost of power battery has fallen, but there is still room for reduction. The manufacturing cost of electric vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and the price is generally higher than that of fuel vehicles of the same model by about 30,000 to 40,000. Among them, the cost of power batteries accounts for Around 40%. According to public data, the global power lithium-ion battery pack price in 2019 was US$156/kWh, and it is expected to fall to US$93/kWh by 2024 and further to US$61/kWh in 2030. From the perspective of the cost structure of the battery pack, the raw material cost of battery cells accounts for the largest proportion. The price of rare metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese has remained high. Taking electrolytic cobalt as an example, the price of electrolytic cobalt has been maintained within the price range of 250,000-300,000/ton in the past year. Therefore, we are looking for new materials and new processes. Become a new direction for cost reduction. 2. Car companies have deployed in the field of power batteries, reducing costs on their own to win more markets. On September 23, Tesla announced a number of new technologies during its 'Battery DayGuarantee price advantage in the market to increase sales. Tesla officially announced that by 2025, through cost reduction measures, the cost of Tesla battery packs is expected to fall by 56% to 56 US dollars/kWh, and the price of Tesla's pure electric vehicles is expected to fall to 25,000 US dollars. Calculated in turn, taking the Tesla ModelS equipped with a 100kWh battery pack as an example, the cost of its single-car battery will be reduced from $13,000 to $5,600, and the price of the vehicle can be reduced by 10%. Under the circumstance of ensuring product quality, such a large reduction in the price of bicycles will definitely win the favor of the market and can quickly increase sales. At the same time, Tesla announced that it intends to expand its power battery production capacity to 10GWh in 2021 and 200GWh in 2022. If self-sufficiency can be achieved in the future, it will not only reduce costs, but also improve battery and vehicle adaptability, achieving two goals. In addition to Tesla, many mainstream car companies have been involved in the battery field, which can be roughly embodied in three forms: One is to deepen cooperation with battery manufacturers. Ningde Times has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Company, Honda Automobile, BAIC and other OEMs. According to data from China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, Ningde Times has installed 16.75GWh of vehicles from January to September 2020. The market share is as high as 49%. Second, OEMs have acquired shares in battery companies to grasp core technologies with capital investment. On May 28, Volkswagen China and Guoxuan Hi-Tech signed the 'Share Transfer Agreement' and formally bought shares in Guoxuan Hi-Tech. On July 2, Daimler Greater China invested 904.5 million yuan to participate in Funeng Technology's IPO strategic placement of science and technology innovation board, and obtained about 3% of the shares. The third is to build a self-built battery factory, which can quickly meet the needs of vehicles for batteries. BMW will independently develop batteries and plan to double the energy density of batteries in 2030. 3. Analysis of the reasons why car companies are vying to deploy battery factories. At present, mainstream car companies such as Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, and Tesla have increased their investment in the battery field and established battery factories in many parts of the world. In particular, the outbreak of this year’s epidemic has severely affected battery supply, which has further urged car companies to accelerate their deployment in the battery field. After all, the main reason for OEMs’ self-built battery factories is to meet their own needs. The main reasons include the following: 1. By investing in batteries Manufacturers, self-built battery factories, etc., ensure a long-term and stable battery supply, and even in emergencies, they can ensure the normal operation of the production line. 2. Significantly reduce the cost of vehicle production. As mentioned above, the cost of power batteries accounts for about 40% of the cost of the vehicle. Self-built battery factories eliminate the need for intermediate price increases, and can also resist insufficient supply of battery companies and increase in materials. Equivalent risk. 3. It can be perfectly adapted to the vehicle. The design and production of the battery and the vehicle at the same time allows car companies to change the shape of the battery according to the design requirements of the vehicle during the remodeling or launch of new models, thereby reducing development costs. At the same time, the battery is fully adapted to the vehicle, which can reduce safety issues. 4. It can provide more convenience for the development and use of subsequent charging products. 5. To improve the efficiency of battery supervision, monitoring data can be used to improve subsequent services and continuously optimize related technologies. 6. Facilitate the realization of a unified battery standard and facilitate subsequent battery recycling and echelon utilization. 4. The tug-of-war in the power battery market is about to start. From the current situation, automakers' self-built battery factories and independent research and development of battery technology have become the future trend. Automakers and battery companies will compete for the market in terms of material innovation and process innovation. cooperate with. High energy density, stability and safety are the goals for the development of power batteries in the future. New technologies and materials such as cobalt-free, single crystal, new electrolyte additives, silicon nanowires, etc. will provide new ideas for research and development of car companies. In the long run, the idea of u200bu200bimproving quality and reducing costs will force the continuous optimization of technology, and the core product strength in the future will determine the market position of power battery companies.
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