electric vehicle market powered up to accelerate

by:CTECHi     2020-01-26
With the increasing pace of fuel economy requirements of governments around the world, since 2015, China\'s new energy vehicle mandatory production system and the United States zero emission vehicle (ZEV)
The plan actually forced automakers to increase sales of electric vehicles such as battery electric vehicles (BEVS)and plug-
Electric vehicles (PHEVs).
European automakers are less enthusiastic about electric cars than other automakers, and they have joined the electrified movement of electric trains since the \"diesel gate\" scandal.
According to U. S. market data, about eight years will be released from the popmy PHEV model (model year)
The launch of the BEV model will surge in 20192020MY.
China has found it difficult to narrow the technical gap between internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs)
Focus on fostering the pure electric vehicle industry with relatively low technical threshold.
Therefore, in China, growth may be driven mainly by BEVs, and in the United States and Europe, automakers are expected to adopt different strategies based on their core technologies and target markets, regulations that take into account cost efficiency, sales mix and each plugin vehicle (xEV)type.
Overall, we see growth in the market for all types of electric vehicles, including electric vehicles and electric vehicles.
After diesel engines, European automakers are rapidly reducing their reliance on internal combustion engines. ICE)cars.
This will benefit Korean companies with technological advantages.
Despite the soaring price of metals used in electric vehicle batteries, battery costs will fall due to economies of scale and 3rd of production
Power generation batteries with reduced cobalt ratio and increased energy density.
The market will be from 2020-3rd
At USD100/kWh, the energy density increased by more than 30%. LG Chem (OTCPK:LGCLF)with its world-
First-class technology will take a leap from krw1 to electric vehicle battery sales.
7tn to krw6 from 2017. 4tn in 2020.
Its electric vehicle battery business should be profitable as early as 2H18 years.
China is determined to cultivate the electric vehicle industry (NEV)
The policy, which began in 2009, has been further strengthened through the strong support of the government since 2014 (
Subsidies, introduction of the average fuel efficiency of the company, increased purchase by public entities, tax exemption and expansion of the charging infrastructure).
2016 through 2020, the Chinese government will work to promote quantitative growth and industrialisation, while gradually reducing subsidies and reducing the financial burden, by strengthening the average fuel efficiency of enterprises and introducing NEV mandatory sales systems.
In our view, these measures mean that the government has decided to nurture domestic automakers in the electric vehicle market, because it is difficult to narrow the technical gap in the traditional market of automobiles driven by internal combustion engines.
Beijing plans to increase sales of new energy vehicles in China to 2mn vehicles per year by 2020, accounting for 5% of vehicle sales.
2025, this ratio should reach 20%.
According to our long term
According to the long-term forecast, NEV will sell more than 10mn in China by 2030.
The fast-growing market for new energy vehicles is impressive, but more importantly, we note that the Chinese government\'s goal is to increase China\'s auto market share to 70% by 2020 and 80% by 2025.
We expect the Chinese government to implement the mandatory production system for new energy vehicles in 2018, directly encouraging automakers to produce and sell BEVs/phev.
This policy is similar to the ZEV plan implemented in California, requiring a certain proportion of ICE car production and import volume per year for each automaker to be NEVs (
Electric vehicle phev fcev).
Depending on the range and type, the automaker gets two to five credit points per NEV.
For example, a company that produces ICE vehicles in 1mn units must receive 80,000 NEV points in 2018, 100,000 in 2019 and 120,000 in 2020.
In order to convert it into production, Chinese automakers must produce 25,000 NEV in 2018, 31,000 in 2019, and 38,000 in 2020, assuming it only produces 200 km BEVs.
Based on the mandatory production system, we conducted simulations to estimate the demand for NEV sales until 2020.
We found that the demand for NEV sales in 2018 was 680,000 vehicles, 850,000 vehicles in 2019, and 1,010,000 vehicles in 2020.
This is equivalent to 56% of the 2020 government targets for 2mn new energy vehicles.
Therefore, this policy is not to achieve the goal. Instead, it aims to force automakers to strengthen their NEV lineup with the aim of driving the growth of the NEV industry in the early days.
At present, there are few global enterprises producing/selling new energy vehicles in China.
Therefore, global players must take a stake in the Chinese market as soon as possible.
The sale of BEV/PHEV to speed up efforts in 2018 the California Aviation Resources Board proposed the ZEV plan in 1990 (CARB).
It stipulates zero sales for auto dealers. or low-
If they want to keep a sales license in California, emissions cars are used together with other traditional cars.
The ZEV project has a long time
The road map and regulations for each step have become more stringent.
Especially in 2018, regulatory changes were particularly significant.
In the United States, the ten states that implemented the ZEV program accounted for 30.
In 2016, the total sales of new cars nationwide 3%.
If a car manufacturer does not meet the requirements, it must pay a fine of $5. 000 per credit loan.
To estimate the sales volume of BEVs/phev/FCEVs that meet the requirements of the ZEV program, CARB provides three scenarios (low-tech, mid-range, high-tech)
Rapid technological development (e. g. , mileage)
And product portfolio (e. g. , BEV vs. PHEV vs. FCEV)as variables.
According to mid-
CARB estimates that 2025 of the sales volume of BEV/PHEV/FCEV is 341,000 vehicles (BEV 9.
Unit 9mn, unit PHEV 22mn and unit FCEV 23 k)
In the top 10 US states, including California, that accept the ZEV program.
This represents 6.
8% of total car sales in 10 states in the United States (4% in 2020).
In California, about 15% of new cars must be new energy vehicles to meet this requirement.
The average fuel economy in major countries must increase by 5% per year. The United States has set a standard target of 54 fuel economy. 5mpg (
Miles per gallon)
By 2025, the average fuel economy can reach 4.
The average annual fuel economy is 9%. 8mpg (
NHTSA standard).
Considering that the improvement speed of the average fuel economy is 2-2.
5% a year, the United States requires twice as fast.
The goal may be relaxed as the plan will be reviewed again after Donald Trump takes office.
However, the 10 US states that are currently carrying out the ZEV plan have vowed to carry out their original goals.
In China, the government has enforced 3-
Since 2012, regulations have been gradually implemented to improve fuel efficiency.
Most Chinese automakers were able to meet their targets until 2015, but in 2017 the standards became more stringent.
Between 2012 and 2015, the average annual improvement required by the government was 2. 8%.
However, over 2016-
2020, the speed of improvement needs to be accelerated to 7.
1% per year, to 5. 0L/100km (= 20km/L)by 2020.
This is faster than the United States and Europe.
Due to NEV\'s mandatory production system, NEV\'s share of China\'s total automobile volume should grow faster than that of the US and Europe. In our view, the Chinese automobile industry must rely on electric vehicles to improve fuel efficiency.
Since 2016, China has imposed fines and credit based on the compliance level of automakers, and we expect that unit fines will continue to increase by 2020.
According to a report released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in November, the average fuel economy of models sold in the United States in 2016 was 25. 6mpg (3.
2% improvement from 2015)
347 grams of carbon dioxide emissions (3. 1% improvement).
Although the sales segment of BEVs/PHEVs has increased by 0.
In 2016, the share of sales of hybrid cars fell by 24% year on year.
22% P, which indicates that the fuel economy improvement rate of ICE vehicles is still higher than expected.
Due to the different average fuel economy of the car manufacturer, the required improvement speed is also different.
For the following reasons, companies that must improve fuel efficiency faster than other companies are more likely to experience profit erosion
Due to the expansion of fuel economy technology to internal combustion engines, the cost has increased; 2)
Pressure to develop and sell xEVs, the profit of xEVs is much lower than that of ICE vehicles; 3)
Increase the pressure on small car sales; and 4)
Expensive materials must be used to make light cars.
Also, all car manufacturers will have to worry about trade
Due to changes in the sales mix, the gap between profitability and penalties (e. g.
, XEV/CART/premium).
While cars that rely solely on electricity can significantly improve fuel economy and reduce emissions, it is also bad for consumers and manufacturers.
In the long transition from electric vehicles to electric vehicles, electric vehicles may still be the mainstream in terms of sales.
According to Continental, hybrid cars help increase fuel economy by 20-
An increase of 25% compared to ICE vehicles20% more vs. 48V MHEVs (mild HEVs).
Electric vehicles are more technically complex than pure electric vehicles, and there is a big technology/patent gap between relatively advanced companies in electric vehicles [1]
Japanese name and modern (OTCPK:HYMLF)Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF)]
European automakers pay more attention to diesel engines.
For this reason, European automakers have shifted their attention to electric vehicles as diesel gates and Chinese companies are latecomers who tend to turn their attention to MeV (mild HEVs)
This can help them improve fuel economy at a lower cost in less time.
Compared with full hybrid vehicles, the MeV system has less volatility in the power system, and the additional cost of installing the system is about EUR500-1,000, just 30-
40% of all electric vehicles.
XEV\'s product line will expand rapidly to accommodate increasingly stringent regulations. In 1997, Toyota began to electrified (TM)Prius (HEV)
Leading to Mitsubishi (OTCPK:MMTOF)i-MiEV (BEV)
2009 and Chevrolet (GM)Volt (PHEV)in 2010.
Electric vehicles are on track for growth at 2000 due to high oil prices, and may be a good choice because they are the most cost-effective --
Efficient and realistic options in XEVs.
There are still many restrictions on BEV/PHEVs, including high prices, short mileage, lack of infrastructure, short charging time, etc, but these restrictions are still improving.
We note that fuel economy and environmental regulations have become a serious burden for vehicle manufacturers, and after 2020, for them, it is difficult to increase the average fuel economy just by increasing the proportion of electric vehicles sold.
That\'s why almost all global automakers are rapidly expanding their BEV/PHEV lineup, about 2020.
According to the information collected by the California Aviation Resources Commission (CARB)
, The number of BEV/PHEV/FCEV models sold in the United States should be three times the original in five years, from 23 models of 206my to 23 models of 2021MY.
The number of phev has soared since 2016MY, and the number of BEVs is expected to soar from 209my.
The 209my model is usually available at 2H18, so 2H18 will see a large number of new BEV models in the market.
According to a report released by IHS on global xEV sales of Hyundai 1H17 in July --
Kia is a runner.
Toyota\'s sales in the hybrid car market are overwhelming. Hyundai-
Kia has various types of xEV and will continue to expand its lineup.
Last year, Hyundai launched the electric vehicle Ioniq, Kia launched a small SUV Niro, and sales of both models have achieved strong growth. Hyundai-
Kia xEV sales soared by 79 vehicles.
7% to 70,000 rose by 126,000 in 2015 to 164 in 2016 and at 1H17. 4% YoY.
Throughout 2017, we expect their xEV sales to double year-on-year.
At present, modern-
The Kia xEV portfolio consists of 13 models, including Niro PHEV in the domestic market. Hyundai-
Kia plans to expand its lineup to 31 (
10 electric cars, 11 electric cars, 8 BEVs, 2 FCEVs)
By 2020, the xEV version of the Genesis sedan was launched in 2021.
In 2018, EV versions of Kona and Niro will be launched, and Ioniq EV will be launched with its subsequent versions
Up models with higher battery capacity and a range of 320 km (vs.
190 km currently).
As for the worrying Chinese market, the expansion of the lineup has been delayed due to LG Chem\'s difficulty in obtaining battery certification. Hyundai-
Kia plans to work with CATL, another battery supplier, starting next year to roll out new models.
Hyundai launched Tucson ix35 FCEV in 2013, becoming the first manufacturer of Volkswagen in the worldproduced HEV.
It also recently released
The goal is to release a new generation of FCEV in early 2018.
With its new model, the automaker\'s goal is to get more than 580 km of the range in a single charge, with a maximum output power of 163 hp, similar to the same category of ice trucks.
The FCEV market is a market that has just started. it is expensive and lacks infrastructure. Semester challenge
However, FCEVs are more eco-friendly than electric vehicles that use fossil fuels in power production, they are almost the same as ICE cars, which run 500 km vehicles five years laterminute charge.
Assuming the Chinese government\'s sales target for electric vehicles (
As of 2020, sales of BEV/PHEV 2mn decreased from 507 K in 2016)
Satisfaction, penetration rate of electric vehicles (EV + PHEV)
In China, it should rise to 6% in 2020.
Due to a favourable regulatory position on BEVs, electric vehicles will be used as an auxiliary means to improve the average fuel economy.
Electric vehicles that have important business in the advanced market (
USA, Europe, Japan)
It may temporarily lead the growth of xEVs sales.
At the same time, as their lineup expands, BEV/phev should grow rapidly, about 2019.
The proportion of electric vehicle sales excluding China may be from 2. 8% between 2016 and 4. 7% in 2020.
The share of BEV/PHEVs is expected to grow from 0 during the same period. 7% to 2. 3%.
On the whole, the sales part of xEV should rise to 7. 0%.
In our hypothesis, we did not consider light electric vehicles, but all electric vehicles.
The NMC battery performance quickly improves the future LiB performance and should further improve the led by using the battery of the NMC (
Nickel, manganese and cobalt)
As cathode material.
This is important because: 1)
NMC batteries help further reduce costs and increase battery density; and 2)
In this area, Korean companies have more advanced technology than other companies.
At present, the electric vehicle battery with the highest energy density is the 18650 battery used by Tesla (TSLA)
Model S using NCA (
Nickel, cobalt, aluminum)
As cathode material
Future we expected Tesla Model 3 in \"with of 2170 battery will more than 18650 battery.
Interestingly, the Japanese B3 study estimates that the initial density of 2170 batteries will not exceed the density of 18650 batteries.
The copper battery consists of more than 80% nickel, so it is difficult to further increase the density and the cost efficiency is lower than that of the copper battery. an NMC battery.
It is worth noting that Tesla\'s technical focus is NMC.
In addition, the LFP series, mainly used by Chinese companies, may be replaced by NMC ternary batteries due to its limitations.
According to the energy density B3 study of the LG Chem bag battery, the Korean manufacturer has rapidly increased the energy density of the battery, which is currently at about kWh Wh/L and is expected to be close to Panasonic\'s (OTCPK:PCRFY)
By 2020, the battery energy was 2170.
Currently, the NMC622 cathode material is in use, but by 2020, the new third-
Generation batteries such as NMC811 may be used.
Tesla\'s goal is to reduce the battery cost of Model 3 by more than 30%. we believe this is mainly the economies of scale brought by gigabit factories, not the further progress of battery technology.
As mentioned earlier, we cannot rule out the possibility of adopting NMC cathode materials because NMC is more cost-effective than NCA.
The main research Institute estimates that the third generation of batteries consisting of more than 80% nickel will produce about 2020, which we think is a realistic prediction.
Some electric cars can even be equipped with this battery faster.
SK Innovation has reportedly said it will use the NMC811 battery from the terminal
2017 and quality-
Production vehicles from 3Q18.
At the same time, NMC cathode material manufacturer L & F may produce NMC622 and NMC811 batteries in the new plant.
Considering the quality-
The general purpose bolts using the NMC622 cathode material began production in 2017 and the technology has advanced rapidly.
When 3rd generation battery quality-
The energy density of the battery should be increased by more than 40%, which will help to improve customer satisfaction with BEVs.
Universal bolts using 60kWh pouch-
The type of battery manufactured by LG Chem can run 238 miles (383km)on one charge.
We believe it can run more than 500 km with 3rd-
Power generation batteries with the same capacity, as the battery energy density is expected to increase at least from kWh wh/L to 700 wh/L.
Ultimately, the energy density will be higher than the NCA battery currently in use.
We estimate that consumer satisfaction is growing fastest when the mileage is between 350 and 400 km. The 2nd-
The production range of electric vehicles, including universal bolts, usually exceeds 350 km kilometers.
If a vehicle that runs 500 km kilometers on a single charge is of quality-
Starting production in 2020, consumer preferences for electric vehicles will increase.
3rd development now-
Compared with the existing lithium, the power generation battery is progressing smoothly
It\'s only ion batteries, so Korean companies with strength in lithium
Ion batteries will remain competitive. Mass-
Production capacity and technology promote the growth of cost, the development of technology and the improvement of quality.
Continue to reduce the cost of the battery.
In particular, quality
Production facilities and the ability to purchase core materials within the company are becoming more and more important, and the LiB market will become a technology marketand capital-
Industry intensive.
This means higher barriers to entry and the possibility of an oligopolistic market. In the third-
While improving battery performance, reducing the use of cobalt will help reduce battery costs.
Ultimately, however, higher productivity and economies of scale are the main reasons for the decline in battery prices.
Based on the NMC622 cathode material, the cost of Li, Co, Ni and Mn is estimated to be around $20.
1 KW mAh battery power 9/kWh.
At present, the cost of the second time
A generation of batteries is about 150 150-200/kWh.
Because we estimate the manufacturing cost of the LG Chem battery to be $194.
In 2017, we estimated that about 10 of the above four metals were present.
The cost of LG Chem is 7%.
If NMC811 cathode material is used, the cost of the four major metals is $19.
3/kWh based on NMC622 is expected to fall to $16. 0/kWh.
Looking ahead, we expect the shortage of lithium invested in new projects to ease from 2020.
The price of cobalt is also expected to be stable due to the increase in the following factors
The rise in copper and nickel prices has led to products.
In general, we believe that the price of raw materials will gradually decline.
The key to the future is the capacity for mass production.
Economies of scale and vertical integration make production possible.
From LG Chem\'s point of view, cathode materials account for the largest proportion of battery costs, but even so, depreciation (15%)and R&D (11%)
The proportion of total battery costs is much higher.
LG Chemical aims to improve its electric vehicle
By 2020, the relevant sales of KRW7tn expanded the battery capacity to more than 40Gwh.
Based on LG chemistry, we estimate that the cost of the battery will be around the USD118.
By 2020, 1kWh, to $97. 7/kWh by 2022.
Volkswagen is expected to be able to reduce costs by falling raw material prices, so there is concern about the recent rise in raw material prices.
However, as far as LG Chem is concerned, even if it started using NMC811 cathode material to produce batteries for $90/kWh in 2020, it should be able to maintain profitability through economies of scale and second economies
Production of power generation batteries will be maintained until 2022.
In addition, battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and Samsung SDI (OTC:SSDIF)
Consideration is being given to linking the metal price to the battery price.
In this case, the battery manufacturer will be able to share with the vehicle manufacturer part of the burden of increased costs due to rising raw material prices.
2025, lithium-
The cost of ion batteries is expected to drop to $84/kWh.
Assuming that the battery is sold at $90/kWh, and considering that GM Bolt\'s battery price is about $/kWh, by 2025, GM will be able to save more than 300 of the battery-only cost of USD3, at the same time, its scope has also increased by more than 30% (
If the battery capacity remains the same).
As of 2015, the shortage of lithium supply will end, and the shortage of lithium supply will be about 2,000 tons.
The global output is 175,000 tons (
LCE based on lithium carbonate)
Australia accounts for 70,000 tons (
(40% of the total)
60,000 tons in Chile and 20,000 tons in Argentina.
Global consumption is 177,000 tons (
Lithium carbonate (LCE)
China\'s output is 70,000 tons (
(40% of the total)
Europe is 38,000 tons, Japan is 19,000 tons, South Korea is 19,000 tons, and North America is 15,000 tons.
However, this supply shortage is expected to be resolved from 2020, as projects starting in 2007 and 2009 of projects are likely to be put into production in 2018 --2019.
Assuming the utilization rate increases in turn, lithium supply will increase significantly from 2020.
It is worth noting that a lithium development project usually takes about 10 years, including two years of exploration, two years of feasibility analysis and four to five years of mining.
Looking forward, from 2016 to 2025, lithium demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12% (
From 2015 to 2016, 190,000 tons were 177,000 tons, 375,000 tons were 2021, and 611,000 tons were 2025, respectively).
The main catalyst for lithium demand is the increase in the demand for rechargeable batteries caused by the increase in the output of electric vehicles.
Usually, about 6-
Lithium and 9-13 kg
26 kg of cobalt makes an electric car.
At the same time, from 2016 to 2025, lithium supply is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of 14% (
From 175,000 tons in 2015 to 177,000 tons in 2016, 378,000 tons in 2021 and 649,000 tons in 2025).
Major lithium suppliers include SQM (SQM)(
Market share 19%), ALBEMARLE (ALB)(14%), FMC (FMC)(10%)
Weijingyan, China (13%)
Brane, China (4%).
Lithium prices have risen since the end of the year
2015. due to tight supply, it has doubled in the past two years.
However, when the supply shortage was resolved in 2020, we expect the price of lithium to stabilize.
Korean brands, including LG Chem, have benefited the most because the EV LiB market is growing much faster than expected, and we believe that the bargaining power between battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers is growing.
This is because: 1)high-risk high-
Nickel cathode materials with low cobalt ratio are adopted much faster than expected; and 2)
South Korean battery manufacturers have hinted that they are negotiating to pass on the rise in metal prices to customers.
We believe this is the result of a sense of urgency for vehicle manufacturers to respond strongly to European environmental regulations.
We noticed: 1)
With confidence in diesel vehicles falling, European automakers hope to move quickly to electric vehicles; 2)
The industry is preparing for the arrival of the Tesla Model 3, which will be large-scale
Production in 2018; 3)
Recently, the price of cobalt has soared; and 4)
Only a limited number of companies have the ability to produce 2-
LiB of the 2018 s or more advanced-
2020 when the main 2nd/3rd-
The generation model is likely to be large-scale. produced. Now, Tesla (Gigafactory)
LG Chem and Samsung SDI are the only three companies in the world that can reliably manufacture batteries using NMC622 cathode materials.
Until the quality reaches 2022
Production 3rd-
A generation of batteries has become normal and solid-
We expect that LiB will continue to lead technological progress.
Currently, we believe Korean battery manufacturers benefit from their advantage in LiB.
We do not believe that car manufacturers in North America/Europe choose Tesla, their biggest threat, as their battery supplier.
Also, given that Nissan recently uninstalled the AESC, it is unlikely that automakers themselves will enter the battery market.
So we expect competition between South Korea and Chinese battery manufacturers to intensify.
LG Chem and Samsung SDI are in a good position as they are: 1)
Has contributed to the 2nd production
Working with car manufacturers in North America and Europe to produce electric vehicles; and 2)
It is key to be more competitive in materials.
Without special problems, it is likely that Korean companies will continue to benefit from their mass production capacity. produce 3rd-
Battery generation.
We have been saying that competition in the free market will be led by companies with strength in materials.
LG Chem acquired gs em, a manufacturer of cathode materials, in 2016.
We believe that LG Chem is state-of-the-art in terms of technology and cost-competitive as it has the ability to develop and manufacture cathode materials on its own. All-solid-
Next could be the state battery.
After 2020, the LiB energy density may reach the level considered to be its limit (
300Wh/kg and 700 wh/l).
The next need-
Therefore, the power generation battery should grow exponentially. Right now, all-solid-
As the next most watched National Battery Companygen battery.
Toyota and Bosch are frantically working on a fullsolid-
National Battery and Toyota say it will start selling all-electric vehiclessolid-
National batteries have been used in Japan since 2022.
In addition, Murakami (OTCPK:MRAAY)
I know-how in all-solid-
Took over Sony\'s battery business.
Looking ahead, this could pose a risk to Korean battery manufacturers depending on how they deal with the production of all solid materialsStatus battery.
According to Bosch battery technology, battery technology will make the most obvious progress in battery weight, becausesolid-
The state battery should drop.
In addition, high
Voltage cathode materials can be used, which will help to increase the energy density compared to LiB.
The risk of ignition and explosion is also low.
Based on patents, Japanese companies are the leaders in this field, especially Toyota.
In South Korea, only Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF)
Has a number of patents.
Korean battery manufacturers are working on various Next Steps
New generation batteries such as lithium batteriesSulfur, lithium
Air and all solidsStatus battery.
To remain more than 2020 competitive, they need to develop strategies for the next goal
Replace the battery to withstand competition from Bosch, Japan and Germany.
That being said, even if allsolid-
We believe that the LiB battery will remain the mainstream battery in 2022.
First of all, after 2022, the price of electric vehicle batteries is expected to drop below USD per kWh, and we believe that the price of solid batteries will take time
Because the main reason for the price decline is the large scale --production.
In addition, it is unlikely that OEMs will consider all the positive factorssolid-
3rd-time, the state battery is enough to scrap the LiB system
A generation of batteries ensures 500-
Charge 700 km at a time.
Modern Mobis supplies core components (
Rotating motor, battery module including BMS, inverter and converter)
XEV for the production of modern automobile companies (005380. KS, BUY)
Kia Motor (000270. KS, BUY).
Hyundai and Kia plan to expand their xEV portfolio from the current 13 to 31 by 2020.
Therefore, Mobis is expected to play a key role in leading future automotive technology trends featuring xEV and ADAS.
Hyundai/Kia sold 116 xEVs (+164. 4% YoY)
Thanks to the strong sales of modern Ioniq and Kia Niro in 1H17 years.
116 K units sold within 1 H, and sales volume last year (126K).
We expect the total sales volume of 2017 xEV to surge 98.
Between 8% and 251.
The surge in sales of xEV produced by Hyundai/Kia means a surge in sales of xEV parts for Mobis.
We now estimate that it is easy for mobis\'s xEV parts sales to break the KRW1tn standard in 2017.
Although margins are not high, we expect the business to reach BEP by 2018, given the rapid growth. xEV-
In 2016, the related sales were only slightly higher than KRW600bn, accounting for 2% of module sales and 5% of core parts sales.
This year, we expect this number to grow to 4% and 10% respectively.
Mobike\'s 2Q revenue has been hit by a decline in sales of Hyundai/Kia cars in China.
But we believe 2Q has fallen the most. -63% YoY)
Sales are expected to pick up modestly by August.
Starting in September, with the launch of a series of new models, favorable seasonality and the last --
Purchase minutes before the end of the excise tax offer.
We estimate that the value of the battery business is KRW5tn, but now we will increase the forecast to krw10. 1tn.
This includes the value of a small battery/ESS (KRW2. 9tn)
Battery for electric vehicles (KRW7. 2tn).
We believe that even with FCFF, the battery business will be profitable in 2021.
To reflect our upgrade to the valuation of the battery business, we adjusted the target price to krw, 000.
LG Chemical is still the first choice in our chemical industry.
As the department starts to make a profit in 2Q17 years, expectations for the battery business are getting higher and higher.
We now estimate the value of the department in krw10.
1tn, higher than the previous KRW5tn.
Electric vehicle battery sales are expected to grow at 55.
Compound growth rate of 7% in 2017 (KRW1. 7tn)to 2020 (KRW6. 4tn).
Despite the rise in raw material prices, production costs should fall due to advanced technology and economies of scale;
Therefore, from 2020, even if 3rd-
Electricity-generating batteries cost less than $1/kWh.
Although China\'s business is still uncertain, with the start of mass production by European/Korean automakers,produce 2nd-
LG Chem\'s battery Sales for electric vehicles should jump to krw6.
4tn from krw1 to 2020. 7tn in 2017.
2nd barrage
The EV generation is likely to release more than 2018-2019.
With the improvement of utilization rate, the electric vehicle business is expected to achieve profitability in 2019 (
The earliest 4Q18).
The profit momentum of the battery business will be further strengthened at 2H17.
Since the release of 3Q17, Apple has launched a new smartphone that powers the development of small batteries.
The most recent ASP rate hike should be considered a 3Q gain.
When ATL recovered from the Galaxy Note 7 crash, LG Chem made progress by becoming an exclusive battery supplier for the iPhone 9.
We believe LG Chem\'s market share in the small battery sector is growing.
Taking into account the company\'s sales guidance for electric vehicles in krw1.
In this year\'s 7tn, we expect the battery utilization of electric vehicles to pick up in 2 hours.
4Q will benefit from the strong seasonality of ESS with considerable profits.
Shares rose due to expectations for electric vehicle batteries.
Although 2 hours is a typical low
Battery revenue will still improve within 1 hour during the demand season.
We expect the stock market to remain strong.
We apply for a permanent growth rate of 3.
Electric car battery 5% and 2.
5% for small batteries and ESS.
We believe that our strong growth prospects for the battery business are reasonable.
We continue to introduce LG Electronics (OTC:LGEAF)
Buy six-month-
Forward target price for KRW94, 000 (1. 3x 2017F BPS).
With LGE starting to offer 11 electric vehicle components to GM Bolt electric vehicles, it is becoming the largest manufacturer of electric vehicle components in South Korea.
The 11 components it offers to GM reflect the culmination of synergy between the core component technology of the H & a department and the LG Chem battery technology.
In home appliances, LGE is a global leader in motors, inverters and compressors.
Cutting with it
LGE applies edge technology to household appliances, improving the competitive power of its electric vehicle components, where energy efficiency is second to none.
It is now an overall solution provider in the field of electric vehicles, offering battery packs and infotainment systems based on LG Chem battery module technology.
It is worth noting that GM\'s Bolt electric vehicle can run 383 km kilometers at a single charge and get a positive response in North America at a reasonable price.
GM\'s Bolt EV provides a good reference for LGE\'s capabilities, so it helps LGE diversify its customer portfolio in Europe and China.
LGE now has more than 10 customers and it will provide them with rotating motors, inverters and battery packs.
In addition, it will complete the construction of 1 q18 year electric vehicle parts factory near Detroit, which will become an important foothold in the North American market.
We expect sales of venture capital to grow by 29. 4% YoY to KRW3.
6tn in 2017 and 2020, the number should be further increased to krw6.
3tn in the context of a surge in demand for in-
Car Information entertainment systems and parts for electric vehicles.
This should account for more than 10% of LGE\'s combined sales (
LG Innotek is not included).
2020, the share of electric vehicle parts in VC sales may grow to 25%, and this number will continue to grow thereafter.
As for profitability, we expect the company to reach BEP by 2018.
We recommend buying-and-
Maintain strategy according to LGE\'s long-term strategy
Long-term growth potential as a manufacturer of electric vehicle parts.
We keep buying and buying. month-
Forward target price krwagen, 000 (2. 2x 2018F BPS)on SEMCO.
As Japan\'s main passive component manufacturers such as Yoshida and TDK (OTCPK:TTDKY)
Mainly concentrated in high
Profit MLCC for automotive electronics, overall MLCC supply-
The balance of demand is becoming favorable.
In this context, SEMCO raised the price of the commodity MLCC at 3Q.
Galaxy Note 8 is a sequel to sick
The Galaxy Note 7 comes with the mlcc that is immune to ESD, which has helped improve the hybrid ASP of the smartphone mlcc since 3Q17.
As a result, the MLCC profit margin of SEMCO is rapidly expanding and the upward trend is expected to even last to 2018.
Driven by the rising price of MLCC, the Galaxy Note 8 dual camera module supply and the growing shipments of rigid flex for strategic US customers, we now believe that consolidated sales and operating profits will increase by 8. 7% and 62. 6% QoQ to KRW1. 86tn and KRW114.
9bn, respectively.
As of 2Q17, automobile MLCC accounted for 4% of MLCC\'s total sales.
SEMCO is particularly strong. small, high-
The capacitive mlcc for automotive infotainment systems, but it is also expanding its customer base for battery management systems (BMS)
For electric cars.
The X7R with a working temperature of 125 degrees for SEMCO has passed tests for applications that require more stringent standards in ESD protection and 5mm bending.
X8R that can withstand a temperature of 150 degrees (
So use in the power system)
Customers will soon be optimistic.
Since the demand for X8R is still small, the strategy of SEMCO to expand X7R customers seems cautious.
In addition, SEMCO\'s growing customer base with strict requirements for BMS MLCCs means that for electric vehicle manufacturers seeking to diversify suppliers from current Japanese suppliers, SEMCO is becoming a great choice.
Through its Busan factory specializing in automotive mlcc, SEMCO has been able to meet the different needs of these customers.
We advise investors to buy and hold because we believe that electric vehicles drive demand for MLCCs.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any of the stocks mentioned and no plans to start any positions in the next 72 hours.
This article was written by myself and expressed my views.
I received no compensation (
In addition to Seeking Alpha).
I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Thank you!
Editor\'s note: This article discusses one or more securities that are not traded on major US securitiesS. exchange.
Please note the risks associated with these stocks.
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