Analysis of the downward trend of lithium-ion battery prices
Experts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance's energy storage team have been tracking the price trend of lithium-ion batteries since 2010, and using the data obtained to predict future price trends. This research report is a speech report made by Bloomberg New Energy Finance at the Future Energy Summit held in New York on March 26, 2019. It analyzes the downward trend of lithium-ion battery costs in the future.
Since 2010, the actual price of lithium-ion battery packs has fallen by 85%. This cost reduction is due to the economic benefits brought by the large-scale production of lithium-ion batteries and the continued use of new high-energy-density cathode materials.
According to the collected data, Bloomberg New Energy Finance calculates that the learning rate of the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry is 18%. This means that whenever the cumulative production of lithium-ion batteries doubles, the price of lithium-ion batteries will drop by 18%.
According to this learning rate, by 2024, the price of lithium-ion battery packs will be less than US$100/kWh.
In order to reduce the price to the above-mentioned level, the lithium-ion battery industry must continue to choose high-energy-density positive and negative materials and reduce the cost of battery raw materials. At the same time, the adoption of new manufacturing technologies will also save more energy, raw materials and space.
A set of data
85%
Since 2010 , The actual price of lithium-ion battery packs will drop by 85%
2024
In 2024, the price of lithium-ion battery packs The average price will be less than US$100/kWh
US$21/kWh
The use of high energy density cathode materials can be used in materials , Batteries, battery packs, etc., to reduce the cost of 21 US dollars/kwh in total
