America Must Rebuild Domestic Battery Manufacturing Infrastructure

by:CTECHi     2019-12-02
Last Thursday, I briefly talked about a few points in a recent report by Steven Milonovich, Merrill Lynch\'s clean technology strategist, the sixth revolution: the arrival of clean technology.
Finally, I suggest that if the analysis of the report is accurate and energy storage becomes a key supporting technology for the clean technology revolution, the government will soon begin to consider battery manufacturing companies as strategic national assets, and adopt regulations, industrial policies and tariffs aimed at benefiting the domestic business interests.
This observation started the snowball of the mind down the mountain, and I spent a few days thinking, \"Where exactly did all these batteries come from?
\"My preliminary analysis is a bit disturbing.
Oil is a basic commodity, and consumers are ready after minimal refining.
For resource owners, producers, refiners, distributors, and employees who transfer oil products from the wellhead to gas pumps, the oil business can be very profitable, but it is not highly cost-effective for the auxiliary economy of the producing state
On the other hand, rechargeable batteries are durable products and are mainly used as components for other high-power products
The value of manufacturing products.
This means that every battery produced creates a large number of auxiliary economic opportunities for the producing state.
S. trade partners understand that exports of raw materials and parts have less economic benefits than exports of manufactured goods.
So when we buy oil from less developed countries, we are always on the front line, and when we buy batteries in large quantities from countries that already or are building industrial bases, we may be pushed back.
Let\'s be realistic here. there\'s no self.
Respect the trading partner and it will sell the components of the product if it thinks it can sell the finished product.
Despite my unwavering support for the free flow of goods in global markets, I am not at all satisfied with the idea that the future of the United States should be determined by the economic and industrial policies of foreign governments.
Most discussions about battery technology are conducted in a \"battery pack\" manner without describing what the battery pack is.
Essentially, a battery is nothing more than some individual cells put into a container and then hard
Provide the required power supply features.
In the case of lead
Acid battery, the typical format is six batteries in a rigid plastic box.
In the case of NiMH and Li-
The basic component of the ion battery is the same as the battery in the phone or camera.
So if you want to power your laptop, you need a battery pack of 12 to 16 batteries;
If you want to power an electric bike, you need a battery pack of 50 to 100 batteries;
If you want to power a hybrid car, you need a battery pack of about 1,000 batteries;
If you want to power an electric car, you need a battery pack of about 5,000 batteries.
I have said before that in the context of a mobile phone or laptop, the price of the battery makes little sense because the cost of the battery is usually less than 5% of the retail price.
I have also said that for hybrid cars that need $5,000 to $10,000 battery packs or electric vehicles that need $25,000 to $50,000, battery prices will be a key market driver for battery packs.
While I have not delved into the complex economics of the market for battery competition, it is safe to say that handset or laptop manufacturers generally do not worry about battery prices as much as electric bike manufacturers do;
Who generally does not worry about battery prices compared to hybrid car manufacturers;
Who is more worried about battery prices than electric car manufacturers?
In other words, the more batteries you spend to power your product, the more you worry about the price of the battery.
Readers who have been following my article all the time know that I am using NiMH and Li-
Ion batteries used to power vehicles and support heavy work on the grid.
I know all the hybrid cars available are currently using NiMH batteries and I know Li-
Ion is a potential leader in the search for a new electric car beauty queen.
However, this knowledge has not changed the use of NiMH and Li-
The ion battery pack supported by transport and power grid is like using 5,000 hamster to pull the post station.
They may be able to get the job done, but can we really afford the price?
In my opinion, insurmountable obstacles to the widespread use of Li-
Ion battery packs in electric vehicles and power grids
Support apps include: on a website like search for Alpha, one of the best parts of being an outspoken backer is that you have an extraordinary opportunity to understand why many readers think
Finally, my 22 articles draw something in the order of 430 reader reviews, so I like to think that I have a fairly fair view of the prevailing beliefs, prejudices, expectations and misconceptions
Interesting but not surprising is that people who want to promote a particular point of view, philosophy, product or equity are often held responsible for the most serious misconceptions.
In terms of battery technology, I am not an unbiased observer, but at least I am honest about where my personal interests may conflict with my objectivity or compromise my objectivity.
It is reported that Benjamin desreilly said, \"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.
\"The most common statistical lie in the battery industry is based on an absurd premise, that is, the highest and best example of lead
Acid battery technology can be found under the hood of your home car.
This is a garbage hypothesis that leads to garbage statistics, but it sounds so unreasonable that people happily accept statistics without asking key questions, \"so, how about your exotic battery chemistry compared to the best lead --Acid technology?
Here\'s a brief compilation of the precious myths and undisputed realities I \'ve collected from six months of reader reviews.
Myth: Leading Role
The acid battery is rusty. Belt technology.
Unquestionable reality
Acid Chemistry was ignored for nearly 40 years when wealth was spent on NiMH and Li
Ion Research and development of portable electronic products. Today, lead-
Acid researchers can get materials and manufacturing methods that did not exist 40 years ago.
When researchers began to evaluate the potential impact of new materials and manufacturing methods on lead
The result of acid chemistry is almost magical.
The simple fact is,
Acid batteries are better than NiMH and Li in the last five years-
Since its launch, ion batteries have been available.
Myth: Leading Role
Acid batteries are harmful to the environment.
Undisputed reality: lead as the recovery rate approaches 99%
Acid batteries are the most highly recycled products on earth, and all the materials recycled can be used to make new batteries.
Neither NiMH nor Li.
Ion chemistry can even match the natural resource efficiency and environmental safety of leadacid batteries.
Cherish the myth: Li
The ion battery is one-
The quarter of their lead weight-
Acid equivalent.
Unquestionable reality: a safer pursuit
The ion battery reduced the theoretical energy density by 50%, significantly reducing the weight advantage.
The introduction of Firefly Energy\'s foam electrode technology improves the Energy density of advanced lead
Reduce the use of acid batteries at the same time
The weight advantage of ions goes further. Li-
The ion battery still offers a moderate weight advantage, but in the case of 3,000, it is absurd to worry about the weight.
A heavy car.
Connected power storage installation.
Cherish the myth: Ning and Li
The ion battery has more power than the lead battery. acid batteries.
Undisputed reality: The latest introduction to batteries
Super capacitor hybrids, such as the Super Battery of CSIRO and the Super Battery of Axion Power (OTC:AXPW)
PbC battery improves power properties of advanced leads
Acid batteries reach the level of competition with NiMH and Li
A small part of the cost is the ion battery.
Cherish the myth: Ning and Li
Longer cycle of ion batteriesThan leading lifeacid batteries.
The undisputed reality: the theoretical cycle
The battery life is very short.
Until it is compared to the needs of a particular product.
If the electric car is charged 350 times a year and the vehicle will have 10-
Anything over 3,500 cycles is a waste.
The Super technology of CSIRO reduces sulfuric acid (
Main reason for lead
Acid battery failure)
Axion\'s PbC Technology has solved this problem completely.
When the development and testing of these latest innovations are fully documented, I expect this cycle-
The difference in life between major battery chemicals does not matter.
Cherish the myth: Ning and Li
The ion battery will be improved as the technology matures.
The undisputed reality: NiMH and Li-
The ion battery is already a completely mature technology.
Li\'s safety has been greatly improved.
For the past 20 years, ion batteries have been at the expense of reducing energy density.
The only performance indicator for continuous improvement is Loop
Life is too long for most real people
World applications.
Cherish the myth: Ning and Li
Ion batteries will become cheaper as demand increases.
The undisputed reality is that about 75% of the cost of any battery is raw materials, NiMH, and Li-
Ion batteries have been a major industrial product for the past 20 years.
Basically, all the cost savings that can be achieved have been realized.
At this point, the only thing the increased demand can do is to push the price of raw materials up continuously.
Cherish the myth: Li
Ion batteries are a panacea for energy storage.
Reality beyond doubt: Li
For small energy storage needs including mobile phones, power tools, portable computers, electric bicycles and hybrid scooters, Ion batteries may be the best storage solution.
When the battery pack is larger than the bread box, their cost-effectiveness drops sharply. Even if Li-
Ion batteries may be cost effective in power supply
Hungry apps like EVs and grid support applications in production states, reasonable economic and reasonable industrial policies will always be more conducive to the production of 5,000 mobile phones or 300 to 400 laptops than the production of an electric car.
Cherish the myth: plug
Offers a cost in electric vehicles
An effective way to clean energy in the future.
Undisputed reality: Plug and Play
Electric vehicles may bring dramatic voices to politicians, car companies and environmental activists, but pure electric vehicles cannot pay proposition fees until natural gas prices are much higher than before.
Just this afternoon, I read that President Sarkozy refused to release a government.
A sponsorship report says that while most of France\'s electricity comes from nuclear power plants, electric vehicles make no sense in France.
It is reported that the cheapest price for electric car batteries is the $17,500 battery pack of Ener1 (NASDAQ:HEV)
This will power Th!
Nk City, a bare commuter car, could get 50 miles for a gasoline engine and 60 to 75 miles for diesel.
If you depreciate the battery pack within 10 years and include an estimated interest of 5% in the unamortized balance, you will need to save $22,313 in fuel to recover your hard costs.
Similar gasoline-powered cars travel 15,000 miles a year, 50 miles a gallon, and you can\'t break even on the battery unless the price of gasoline exceeds $7. 44 per gallon.
Milonovich\'s report is a very good job and I can\'t help but agree with any of his conclusions.
I do think, however, that he ignores a key issue-the speed at which changes are quickly accelerated.
Historically, the technological revolution has developed for decades.
In my life, every major change has developed faster, more generally and far-reaching than the previous one --reaching.
I believe that the speed of the clean technology revolution will be much faster than anyone\'s imagination, although the clean technology revolution may have begun in the United States. S.
Europe has become an unstoppable global force.
We may not be ready for the change tsunami promised by the clean technology revolution, but it is already here and the only option we have left is to adapt or be washed away.
We need to get up tomorrow morning, work with the toolbox we have, try our best to solve our problems, and we are eager to adapt to new tools when they come up.
Pure gaming listed companies with the potential to have a meaningful impact on the future of energy storage in the United States include Enersys (NYSE:ENS)
Exide technology (XIDE)
C & D technology (CHP)Ultralife (NASDAQ:ULBI)
Axiom Energy International Corporation (OTC:AXPW)
And ZBB Energy (ZBB).
Companies with potential to make a difference in Asia and Europe include advanced battery technology (OTCPK:ABAT)
Chinese battery (NASDAQ:CBAK-OLD)
Hong Kong Sea rights (NASDAQ:HPJ)
Maxwell technology (NASDAQ:MXWL)
SAFT battery (OTC:SGPEF).
The rest are watching, but too immature or overpriced for me to seriously discuss as a potential investment.
Reasonable industrial policy requires that our global trading partners will want to sell us finished products instead of bulk parts.
Basic economics stipulates that products such as mobile phones, laptops, electric tools, electric bicycles and hybrid scooters will be more responsive to changes in battery prices than bulk products for electric vehicles and power grid support applications.
Combining these factors, I have come to the inevitable conclusion that we cannot use NiMH or Li-
Ion technology supported by electric vehicles or power grids, even if we have the ability, battery-producing countries cannot reduce the production of other battery-powered products and make room for our wasteful demand.
Unless the United States takes immediate and decisive steps to rebuild its domestic battery-manufacturing infrastructure, America\'s ability to profit from the clean-tech revolution looks bleak.
Hesitation, debate, and daydreaming are no longer choices.
Disclosure: The author has a large number of long-term positions in Axion Power International, recently purchased a small number of long-term positions in Exide and Enersys, and may make additional storage sector investments in the future.
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